Brazil · Serie A

Flamengo vs Vitoria

Kick-off 23:30 · Sun, Aug 9

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

60% confidence

Flamengo 59.6% Draw 21.8% Vitoria 18.6%

Over 2.5 - 68% BTTS - 65%

🎯 Best Pick

Home Win

AI verdict (fallback)

🤝 Bookmakers agree - bookies say 77%

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

82%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 9.6%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Flamengo: 9 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.6%

Exact-score model probability

Bookmaker implied chance

77%

Market agrees with this pick

Flamengo

D D W L D W

Form 2-3-1 Goals 8:6 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1

Vitoria

L L D W L W

Form 2-1-3 Goals 4:9 Scored/game 0.67 Conceded/game 1.5

📈 Probability Breakdown

Flamengo win59.6%

Draw21.8%

Vitoria win18.6%

Over 1.5 goals87.4%

Over 2.5 goals67.7%

Over 3.5 goals46.1%

Both teams to score64.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 5.5 Cards

91.6%

Under 11.5 Corners

91.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

90.8%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)80.4%

Home or Draw (1X)80.2%

Draw No Bet - Home75.5%

Both Halves Over 0.567.6%

Goal in Both Halves67.6%

Home Win60.6%

Draw or Away (X2)39.3%

Draw No Bet - Away24.5%

Away Win19.7%

Draw19.6%

Exactly 1 Goal10.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.9%

Over 1.5 Goals86.3%

Under 5.5 Goals85.9%

Under 4.5 Goals72.8%

Over 2.5 Goals67.7%

2-4 Goals59.0%

Under 3.5 Goals53.9%

1-3 Goals50.8%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Over 3.5 Goals46.1%

4+ Goals46.1%

3-4 Goals40.5%

2-3 Goals40.2%

Under 2.5 Goals32.3%

1-2 Goals29.2%

Over 4.5 Goals27.2%

Exactly 3 Goals21.6%

Exactly 2 Goals18.6%

Over 5.5 Goals14.1%

Under 1.5 Goals13.7%

Under 0.5 Goals3.1%

Exactly 0 Goals3.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score89.5%

Away Team to Score70.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)63.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)36.7%

Home Clean Sheet29.3%

Home Win to Nil26.2%

Away Clean Sheet10.4%

Away Win to Nil7.3%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.589.5%

Away Over 0.570.7%

Home Over 1.566.0%

Home Over 2.539.4%

Home 3+ Goals39.4%

Away Exactly 135.9%

Away Over 1.534.7%

Away Exactly 029.3%

Home Exactly 226.6%

Home Exactly 123.5%

Away Exactly 222.1%

Away Over 2.512.7%

Away 3+ Goals12.7%

Home Exactly 010.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.3%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)96.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away96.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)92.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home92.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)90.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away90.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)80.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home80.2%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)79.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away79.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)61.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away61.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)60.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)39.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away39.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)38.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home38.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw22.1%

Home to win by 122.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)20.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home20.5%

Home to win by 3+20.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)19.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.1%

Home to win by 218.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw12.0%

Away to win by 112.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw11.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)9.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home9.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)7.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away7.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw5.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw5.3%

Away to win by 25.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)3.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home3.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.4%

Away to win by 3+2.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.8%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.554.9%

Home & Over 2.546.0%

Home & BTTS34.4%

Home & No BTTS26.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.523.8%

Draw & BTTS16.5%

Home & Under 2.514.7%

Away & Over 2.513.7%

No BTTS & Over 2.512.9%

Away & BTTS12.4%

Draw & Under 2.511.5%

BTTS & Under 2.58.5%

Draw & Over 2.58.1%

Away & No BTTS7.3%

Away & Under 2.56.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.579.2%

HT Under 1.553.4%

HT Over 1.546.6%

HT Home Win46.2%

2nd Half More Goals46.1%

HT/FT Home/Home39.8%

HT Draw34.2%

1st Half More Goals31.9%

HT Both Teams Score27.1%

Equal Goals Each Half22.0%

HT Under 0.520.8%

HT Away Win19.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.1%

HT/FT Away/Away11.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw10.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away6.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.7%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.7%

HT/FT Away/Home3.8%

HT/FT Home/Away1.7%

Corners (12)

Under 11.5 Corners91.1%

Under 10.5 Corners84.8%

Under 9.5 Corners75.7%

Under 8.5 Corners63.9%

Away Most Corners57.0%

Away Over 4.5 Corners43.6%

Over 8.5 Corners36.1%

Home Most Corners29.2%

Home Over 4.5 Corners24.4%

Over 9.5 Corners24.3%

Over 10.5 Corners15.2%

Over 11.5 Corners8.9%

Cards (9)

Under 5.5 Cards91.6%

Under 4.5 Cards81.5%

Under 3.5 Cards64.7%

Over 2.5 Cards57.7%

Under 2.5 Cards42.3%

Over 3.5 Cards35.3%

Over 4.5 Cards18.5%

Over 0.5 Red Cards12.0%

Over 5.5 Cards8.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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