Brazil · Serie A

Fluminense vs Bahia

● LIVE 81' · 0:0

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

57% confidence

Fluminense 57.4% Draw 18.1% Bahia 24.5%

Over 2.5 - 87% BTTS - 82%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

AI verdict (fallback)

🤝 Bookmakers agree - bookies say 80%

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

85%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 6.2%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Fluminense: 7 points versus 6 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.2%

Exact-score model probability

Bookmaker implied chance

80%

Market agrees with this pick

Fluminense

D D D L W D

Form 1-4-1 Goals 7:7 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1.17

Bahia

D D W L D L

Form 1-3-2 Goals 8:8 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.33

🏥 Fluminense unavailable

Guilherme Arana · Injury

J. Millan · Thigh Injury

K. Serna · Injury

Jemmes · Thigh Injury

🏥 Bahia unavailable

Leo Vieira · Knee Injury

Erick · Inactive

David Duarte · Yellow Cards

C. Olivera · Ankle Injury

📈 Probability Breakdown

Fluminense win57.4%

Draw18.1%

Bahia win24.5%

Over 1.5 goals96.3%

Over 2.5 goals87.0%

Over 3.5 goals72.6%

Both teams to score82.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

89.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

87.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away

87.6%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.583.3%

Goal in Both Halves83.3%

Home or Away (12)82.7%

Home or Draw (1X)74.7%

Draw No Bet - Home69.8%

Home Win57.7%

Draw or Away (X2)41.9%

Draw No Bet - Away30.2%

Away Win25.0%

Draw16.9%

Exactly 1 Goal3.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.9%

Over 1.5 Goals95.4%

Over 2.5 Goals86.7%

Over 3.5 Goals72.3%

4+ Goals72.3%

Under 5.5 Goals63.0%

Over 4.5 Goals54.6%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Total Goals Even49.8%

Under 4.5 Goals45.4%

2-4 Goals40.8%

Over 5.5 Goals37.0%

3-4 Goals32.1%

Under 3.5 Goals27.7%

1-3 Goals26.6%

2-3 Goals23.1%

Exactly 3 Goals14.4%

Under 2.5 Goals13.3%

1-2 Goals12.2%

Exactly 2 Goals8.7%

Under 1.5 Goals4.6%

Under 0.5 Goals1.1%

Exactly 0 Goals0.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.4%

Away Team to Score86.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)81.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)18.5%

Home Clean Sheet13.7%

Home Win to Nil13.0%

Away Clean Sheet5.2%

Away Win to Nil4.5%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.4%

Away Over 0.586.0%

Home Over 1.579.1%

Away Over 1.558.8%

Home Over 2.556.4%

Home 3+ Goals56.4%

Away Over 2.531.8%

Away 3+ Goals31.8%

Away Exactly 127.2%

Away Exactly 227.0%

Home Exactly 222.7%

Home Exactly 115.4%

Away Exactly 013.7%

Home Exactly 05.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.5%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)97.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)94.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away94.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)94.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home94.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)87.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away87.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)87.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home87.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)76.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away76.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)74.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home74.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)60.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away60.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)57.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)41.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away41.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)39.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home39.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)25.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)23.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home23.3%

Home to win by 3+23.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.4%

Home to win by 118.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.0%

Home to win by 216.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)12.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away12.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw12.4%

Away to win by 112.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)12.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home12.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw11.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw7.2%

Away to win by 27.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw6.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)5.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)5.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away5.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home5.4%

Away to win by 3+5.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw3.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)2.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)2.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away2.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home2.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.2%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.577.3%

Home & Over 2.552.5%

Home & BTTS44.8%

Away & Over 2.522.1%

Away & BTTS20.5%

Draw & BTTS16.2%

Home & No BTTS13.0%

Draw & Over 2.512.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.58.8%

Home & Under 2.55.2%

Draw & Under 2.54.9%

Away & No BTTS4.5%

BTTS & Under 2.54.2%

Away & Under 2.52.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.589.2%

HT Over 1.565.1%

2nd Half More Goals49.5%

HT Home Win46.8%

HT Both Teams Score43.5%

HT/FT Home/Home39.0%

HT Under 1.534.9%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw28.0%

HT Away Win25.1%

Equal Goals Each Half18.1%

HT/FT Away/Away15.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.0%

HT Under 0.510.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away7.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.9%

HT/FT Away/Home5.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Home/Away2.9%

🏥 Injuries & Suspensions

Fluminense

Guilherme Arana Injury

J. Millan Thigh Injury

K. Serna Injury

Jemmes Thigh Injury

John Kennedy Red Card

Matheus Reis Knee Injury

Bahia

Leo Vieira Knee Injury

Erick Inactive

David Duarte Yellow Cards

C. Olivera Ankle Injury

M. Moreno Lacking Match Fitness

Caio Alexandre Hamstring Injury

Ze Guilherme Yellow Cards

🔎 API-Football Model

An independent statistical model, shown for comparison.

Fluminense win45%

Draw45%

Bahia win10%

AdviceDouble chance : Fluminense or draw

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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