Brazil · Serie A

Fluminense vs Coritiba

Full time · 4:0

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

80% confidence

Fluminense 79.9% Draw 12.6% Coritiba 7.5%

Over 2.5 - 81% BTTS - 63%

✓ Pick was correct (4:0)

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

93%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

80%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 8.1%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Fluminense: 14 points versus 8 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.84 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.1%

Exact-score model probability

Fluminense

W W D W W D

Form 4-2-0 Goals 13:8 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 1.33

Coritiba

L D L W W D

Form 2-2-2 Goals 10:14 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 2.33

📈 Probability Breakdown

Fluminense win79.9%

Draw12.6%

Coritiba win7.5%

Over 1.5 goals93.8%

Over 2.5 goals81.1%

Over 3.5 goals63.5%

Both teams to score63.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Draw (1X)

91.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

91.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home

91.2%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)91.2%

Draw No Bet - Home90.8%

Home or Away (12)87.9%

Home Win79.9%

Both Halves Over 0.578.4%

Goal in Both Halves78.4%

Draw or Away (X2)19.4%

Draw11.3%

Draw No Bet - Away9.2%

Away Win8.1%

Exactly 1 Goal5.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.0%

Over 1.5 Goals92.5%

Over 2.5 Goals80.5%

Under 5.5 Goals73.0%

Over 3.5 Goals63.0%

4+ Goals63.0%

Under 4.5 Goals56.2%

Total Goals Even49.7%

Total Goals Odd49.6%

2-4 Goals48.7%

Over 4.5 Goals43.8%

Under 3.5 Goals37.0%

3-4 Goals36.7%

1-3 Goals35.0%

2-3 Goals29.5%

Over 5.5 Goals27.0%

Under 2.5 Goals19.5%

Exactly 3 Goals17.5%

1-2 Goals17.5%

Exactly 2 Goals12.0%

Under 1.5 Goals7.5%

Under 0.5 Goals2.0%

Exactly 0 Goals1.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.7%

Away Team to Score64.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)62.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)37.7%

Home Clean Sheet34.7%

Home Win to Nil33.4%

Away Clean Sheet3.6%

Away Win to Nil2.3%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.7%

Home Over 1.583.8%

Away Over 0.564.6%

Home Over 2.563.9%

Home 3+ Goals63.9%

Away Exactly 136.5%

Away Exactly 034.7%

Away Over 1.528.1%

Home Exactly 219.8%

Away Exactly 219.2%

Home Exactly 111.9%

Away Over 2.58.9%

Away 3+ Goals8.9%

Home Exactly 03.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.3%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.2%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)96.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home96.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)93.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)91.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home91.2%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)85.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away85.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)79.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)73.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away73.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)62.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home62.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)56.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away56.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)43.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home43.1%

Home to win by 3+43.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)36.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away36.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)25.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home25.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw19.5%

Home to win by 219.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)19.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away19.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw17.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.2%

Home to win by 117.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)13.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home13.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw12.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)8.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw7.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)5.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home5.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw5.4%

Away to win by 15.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)2.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away2.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.9%

Away to win by 21.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.7%

Away to win by 3+0.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.568.8%

BTTS & Over 2.557.9%

Home & BTTS46.4%

Home & No BTTS33.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.522.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.514.4%

Home & Under 2.511.1%

Draw & BTTS10.1%

Away & Over 2.56.1%

Away & BTTS5.8%

Draw & Over 2.55.7%

Draw & Under 2.55.6%

BTTS & Under 2.54.4%

Away & No BTTS2.3%

Away & Under 2.52.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.586.1%

HT Home Win62.8%

HT/FT Home/Home59.0%

HT Over 1.558.6%

2nd Half More Goals48.4%

HT Under 1.541.4%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Both Teams Score29.3%

HT Draw25.7%

Equal Goals Each Half19.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.4%

HT Under 0.513.9%

HT Away Win11.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Away/Away4.4%

HT/FT Away/Home4.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.9%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away2.8%

HT/FT Home/Away0.8%

Corners (12)

Under 11.5 Corners82.8%

Under 10.5 Corners73.7%

Under 9.5 Corners62.2%

Over 8.5 Corners50.9%

Under 8.5 Corners49.1%

Home Over 4.5 Corners46.2%

Home Most Corners45.8%

Away Over 4.5 Corners42.3%

Away Most Corners40.5%

Over 9.5 Corners37.8%

Over 10.5 Corners26.3%

Over 11.5 Corners17.2%

Cards (9)

Under 5.5 Cards81.6%

Over 2.5 Cards73.1%

Under 4.5 Cards66.8%

Over 3.5 Cards52.7%

Under 3.5 Cards47.3%

Over 4.5 Cards33.2%

Under 2.5 Cards26.9%

Over 5.5 Cards18.4%

Over 0.5 Red Cards15.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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