Brazil · Serie A

Fluminense vs Palmeiras

Kick-off 20:30 · Sat, Aug 15

📊 Our Prediction

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

72% confidence

Fluminense 8.9% Draw 18.7% Palmeiras 72.4%

Over 2.5 - 60% BTTS - 48%

🎯 Best Pick

Away Team to Score

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

90%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

X2 · Draw or Away covers 91.1% of the model's 1X2 probability, leaving 8.9% on the only losing outcome.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Palmeiras: 5 points versus 11 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +4.5 (Handicap)

X2 · Draw or Away

91.1%

Two outcomes covered by the model

Loss probability

8.9%

Only the uncovered result loses

Fluminense

D D D D D L

Form 0-5-1 Goals 4:5 Scored/game 0.67 Conceded/game 0.83

Palmeiras

D W L W W D

Form 3-2-1 Goals 12:4 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 0.67

📈 Probability Breakdown

Fluminense win8.9%

Draw18.7%

Palmeiras win72.4%

Over 1.5 goals82.4%

Over 2.5 goals59.6%

Over 3.5 goals37.2%

Both teams to score48.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 5.5 Goals

90.8%

Away Team to Score

90.4%

Away Over 0.5

90.4%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)90.0%

Draw No Bet - Away88.1%

Home or Away (12)83.3%

Away Win73.3%

Both Halves Over 0.561.3%

Goal in Both Halves61.3%

Home or Draw (1X)26.6%

Draw16.6%

Exactly 1 Goal14.1%

Draw No Bet - Home11.9%

Home Win9.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.4%

Under 5.5 Goals90.8%

Over 1.5 Goals81.3%

Under 4.5 Goals80.1%

Under 3.5 Goals62.8%

2-4 Goals61.4%

Over 2.5 Goals59.5%

1-3 Goals58.2%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-3 Goals44.1%

Under 2.5 Goals40.5%

3-4 Goals39.6%

Over 3.5 Goals37.2%

4+ Goals37.2%

1-2 Goals35.8%

Exactly 3 Goals22.4%

Exactly 2 Goals21.7%

Over 4.5 Goals19.9%

Under 1.5 Goals18.7%

Over 5.5 Goals9.2%

Under 0.5 Goals4.6%

Exactly 0 Goals4.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score90.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)52.8%

Home Team to Score52.2%

Away Clean Sheet47.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)47.2%

Away Win to Nil43.2%

Home Clean Sheet9.5%

Home Win to Nil5.0%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.590.4%

Away Over 1.568.0%

Home Over 0.552.2%

Home Exactly 047.8%

Away Over 2.541.6%

Away 3+ Goals41.6%

Home Exactly 135.3%

Away Exactly 226.3%

Away Exactly 122.4%

Home Over 1.516.9%

Home Exactly 213.0%

Away Exactly 09.5%

Home Over 2.53.9%

Home 3+ Goals3.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away99.4%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)97.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away97.2%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)94.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home94.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)90.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away90.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)86.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home86.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)73.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)71.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home71.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)50.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away50.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)49.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home49.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)28.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away28.6%

Away to win by 3+28.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)26.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home26.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw23.1%

Away to win by 123.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw21.6%

Away to win by 221.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw15.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)13.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away13.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)9.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw8.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw7.3%

Home to win by 17.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)5.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away5.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw3.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)2.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home2.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw2.1%

Home to win by 22.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)1.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away1.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home0.6%

Home to win by 3+0.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw0.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

Away & Over 2.550.0%

Away & No BTTS43.2%

BTTS & Over 2.539.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.532.5%

Away & BTTS30.1%

Away & Under 2.523.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.520.3%

Draw & Under 2.512.5%

Draw & BTTS12.1%

BTTS & Under 2.57.9%

Home & Over 2.55.3%

Home & BTTS5.0%

Home & No BTTS5.0%

Home & Under 2.54.6%

Draw & Over 2.54.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.575.1%

HT Under 1.559.5%

HT Away Win54.0%

HT/FT Away/Away50.0%

2nd Half More Goals44.9%

HT Over 1.540.5%

HT Draw34.5%

1st Half More Goals31.5%

HT Under 0.524.9%

Equal Goals Each Half23.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away20.4%

HT Both Teams Score18.4%

HT Home Win11.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw10.1%

HT/FT Home/Home5.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home4.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.3%

HT/FT Home/Away3.0%

HT/FT Away/Home0.7%

Corners (12)

Under 11.5 Corners75.6%

Under 10.5 Corners65.0%

Home Over 4.5 Corners60.9%

Over 8.5 Corners60.3%

Home Most Corners57.9%

Under 9.5 Corners52.7%

Over 9.5 Corners47.3%

Away Over 4.5 Corners40.4%

Under 8.5 Corners39.7%

Over 10.5 Corners35.0%

Away Most Corners29.7%

Over 11.5 Corners24.4%

Cards (9)

Over 2.5 Cards79.6%

Under 5.5 Cards74.5%

Over 3.5 Cards61.4%

Under 4.5 Cards58.0%

Over 4.5 Cards42.0%

Under 3.5 Cards38.6%

Over 5.5 Cards25.5%

Under 2.5 Cards20.4%

Over 0.5 Red Cards17.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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