Brazil · Serie A

Fluminense vs Santos

Kick-off 20:00 · Sun, Oct 18

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

50% confidence

Fluminense 50.1% Draw 23.3% Santos 26.6%

Over 2.5 - 70% BTTS - 70%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

89%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

77%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

70%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 9%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Santos: 13 points versus 16 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.17 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

Exact-score model probability

Fluminense

L W W W D W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 13:6 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 1

Santos

D W W W W W

Form 5-1-0 Goals 12:7 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1.17

📈 Probability Breakdown

Fluminense win50.1%

Draw23.3%

Santos win26.6%

Over 1.5 goals88.6%

Over 2.5 goals69.9%

Over 3.5 goals48.7%

Both teams to score69.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home Team to Score

87.7%

Home Over 0.5

87.7%

Over 1.5 Goals

87.5%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)78.9%

Home or Draw (1X)72.2%

Both Halves Over 0.569.3%

Goal in Both Halves69.3%

Draw No Bet - Home64.8%

Home Win51.2%

Draw or Away (X2)48.8%

Draw No Bet - Away35.2%

Away Win27.8%

Draw21.0%

Exactly 1 Goal9.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.3%

Over 1.5 Goals87.5%

Under 5.5 Goals84.3%

Under 4.5 Goals70.5%

Over 2.5 Goals69.9%

2-4 Goals58.0%

Under 3.5 Goals51.3%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Over 3.5 Goals48.7%

4+ Goals48.7%

1-3 Goals48.6%

3-4 Goals40.4%

2-3 Goals38.8%

Under 2.5 Goals30.1%

Over 4.5 Goals29.5%

1-2 Goals27.4%

Exactly 3 Goals21.2%

Exactly 2 Goals17.6%

Over 5.5 Goals15.7%

Under 1.5 Goals12.5%

Under 0.5 Goals2.7%

Exactly 0 Goals2.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score87.7%

Away Team to Score77.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)68.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)31.6%

Home Clean Sheet22.0%

Home Win to Nil19.3%

Away Clean Sheet12.3%

Away Win to Nil9.6%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.587.7%

Away Over 0.577.9%

Home Over 1.562.0%

Away Over 1.544.6%

Home Over 2.534.9%

Home 3+ Goals34.9%

Away Exactly 133.3%

Home Exactly 227.0%

Home Exactly 125.7%

Away Exactly 225.2%

Away Exactly 022.0%

Away Over 2.519.4%

Away 3+ Goals19.4%

Home Exactly 012.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)93.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away93.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)87.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home87.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)85.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away85.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)72.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home72.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)69.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away69.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)51.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)48.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away48.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)30.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home30.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)27.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw20.9%

Home to win by 120.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.3%

Home to win by 215.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw15.1%

Away to win by 115.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)14.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home14.9%

Home to win by 3+14.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)12.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away12.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw8.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw8.0%

Away to win by 28.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)6.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home6.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)4.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away4.7%

Away to win by 3+4.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw4.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.7%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.559.8%

Home & Over 2.539.5%

Home & BTTS31.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.521.5%

Away & Over 2.520.6%

Home & No BTTS19.3%

Draw & BTTS18.3%

Away & BTTS18.2%

Home & Under 2.511.6%

Draw & Under 2.511.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.1%

Draw & Over 2.59.7%

Away & No BTTS9.6%

BTTS & Under 2.58.6%

Away & Under 2.57.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.580.3%

HT Under 1.551.7%

HT Over 1.548.3%

2nd Half More Goals46.5%

HT Home Win40.2%

HT Draw34.5%

HT/FT Home/Home32.6%

1st Half More Goals31.9%

HT Both Teams Score30.2%

HT Away Win25.3%

Equal Goals Each Half21.6%

HT Under 0.519.7%

HT/FT Away/Away16.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw10.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away9.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Away/Home3.7%

HT/FT Home/Away2.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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