Netherlands · Eredivisie

Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax

Kick-off 19:00 · Sat, Sep 12

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

52% confidence

Fortuna Sittard 21.9% Draw 25.8% Ajax 52.2%

Over 2.5 - 96% BTTS - 86%

🎯 Best Pick

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

86%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

79%

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

78%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-3 at 6.6%, based on the goal model.

BTTS Poisson estimate

Recent form leans to Ajax: 10 points versus 11 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.33 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-3

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.6%

Exact-score model probability

Fortuna Sittard

W W L W D L

Form 3-1-2 Goals 11:11 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1.83

Ajax

L W W D D W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 15:9 Scored/game 2.5 Conceded/game 1.5

Head to head · last 5

Fortuna Sittard 0wins ·1 draws ·Ajax 4wins

Fortuna Sittard 1-4 AjaxFeb 14, 2026

Fortuna Sittard 1-3 AjaxDec 6, 2025

Fortuna Sittard 0-2 AjaxFeb 9, 2025

Fortuna Sittard 0-5 AjaxSep 18, 2024

Fortuna Sittard 2-2 AjaxMar 10, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Fortuna Sittard win21.9%

Draw25.8%

Ajax win52.2%

Over 1.5 goals79.1%

Over 2.5 goals95.7%

Over 3.5 goals32.2%

Both teams to score86.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

91.3%

HT Over 0.5

91.3%

Over 2.5 Goals

88.9%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Away87.7%

Draw or Away (X2)87.6%

Home or Away (12)87.1%

Both Halves Over 0.586.6%

Goal in Both Halves86.6%

Away Win76.5%

Home or Draw (1X)21.8%

Draw No Bet - Home12.3%

Draw11.1%

Home Win10.7%

Exactly 1 Goal2.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.8%

Over 1.5 Goals95.4%

Over 2.5 Goals88.9%

Over 3.5 Goals77.1%

4+ Goals77.1%

Over 4.5 Goals61.2%

Under 5.5 Goals56.0%

Total Goals Odd49.1%

Total Goals Even49.1%

Over 5.5 Goals44.0%

Under 4.5 Goals38.8%

2-4 Goals34.2%

3-4 Goals27.7%

Under 3.5 Goals22.9%

1-3 Goals20.7%

2-3 Goals18.3%

Exactly 3 Goals11.8%

Under 2.5 Goals11.1%

1-2 Goals8.9%

Exactly 2 Goals6.5%

Under 1.5 Goals4.6%

Under 0.5 Goals2.2%

Exactly 0 Goals0.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score96.1%

Home Team to Score77.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)76.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)24.0%

Away Clean Sheet20.6%

Away Win to Nil20.2%

Home Clean Sheet2.1%

Home Win to Nil1.7%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.596.1%

Away Over 1.588.0%

Home Over 0.577.6%

Away Over 2.572.3%

Away 3+ Goals72.3%

Home Over 1.545.4%

Home Exactly 132.2%

Home Exactly 225.1%

Home Exactly 020.6%

Home Over 2.520.3%

Home 3+ Goals20.3%

Away Exactly 215.7%

Away Exactly 18.1%

Away Exactly 02.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.2%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)97.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away97.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)96.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away96.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)93.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away93.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)91.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)87.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away87.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)83.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home83.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)76.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)71.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home71.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)60.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away60.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)54.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home54.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)43.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away43.4%

Away to win by 3+43.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)37.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home37.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)27.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away27.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)21.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home21.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw17.5%

Away to win by 217.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw16.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw15.6%

Away to win by 115.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)15.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away15.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw12.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)10.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw8.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)6.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away6.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw6.3%

Home to win by 16.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)4.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home4.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw2.9%

Home to win by 22.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home1.5%

Home to win by 3+1.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw1.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.573.3%

Away & Over 2.571.4%

Away & BTTS56.3%

Away & No BTTS20.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.515.6%

Draw & BTTS10.7%

Home & Over 2.59.4%

Home & BTTS9.0%

Draw & Over 2.58.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.56.7%

Away & Under 2.55.0%

Draw & Under 2.53.1%

BTTS & Under 2.52.7%

Home & No BTTS1.7%

Home & Under 2.51.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.591.3%

HT Over 1.570.0%

HT Away Win62.2%

HT/FT Away/Away57.5%

2nd Half More Goals50.4%

HT Both Teams Score41.6%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.530.0%

HT Draw23.1%

Equal Goals Each Half17.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away15.3%

HT Home Win14.7%

HT Under 0.58.7%

HT/FT Home/Home6.1%

HT/FT Home/Away5.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw4.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home3.2%

HT/FT Away/Home1.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions