Netherlands · Eredivisie

Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar

Kick-off 15:30 · Sat, Aug 22

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

46% confidence

Fortuna Sittard 27.6% Draw 26.6% AZ Alkmaar 45.8%

Over 2.5 - 86% BTTS - 83%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

⚠️ AIs disagree

69%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-2 at 7.8%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to AZ Alkmaar: 7 points versus 10 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.8%

Exact-score model probability

Fortuna Sittard

W D L W L L

Form 2-1-3 Goals 10:11 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.83

AZ Alkmaar

W W D D D D

Form 2-4-0 Goals 12:7 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1.17

Head to head · last 5

Fortuna Sittard 2wins ·0 draws ·AZ Alkmaar 3wins

Fortuna Sittard 0-2 AZ AlkmaarApr 4, 2026

Fortuna Sittard 4-3 AZ AlkmaarDec 21, 2025

Fortuna Sittard 0-1 AZ AlkmaarFeb 23, 2025

Fortuna Sittard 1-0 AZ AlkmaarOct 6, 2024

Fortuna Sittard 1-2 AZ AlkmaarFeb 17, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Fortuna Sittard win27.6%

Draw26.6%

AZ Alkmaar win45.8%

Over 1.5 goals80.6%

Over 2.5 goals86.0%

Over 3.5 goals34.1%

Both teams to score83.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

92.0%

Away Team to Score

90.9%

Away Over 0.5

90.9%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)80.5%

Both Halves Over 0.576.3%

Goal in Both Halves76.3%

Draw or Away (X2)71.4%

Draw No Bet - Away64.5%

Away Win52.0%

Home or Draw (1X)47.9%

Draw No Bet - Home35.5%

Home Win28.6%

Draw19.4%

Exactly 1 Goal6.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.4%

Over 1.5 Goals92.0%

Over 2.5 Goals78.7%

Under 5.5 Goals75.6%

Over 3.5 Goals60.1%

4+ Goals60.1%

Under 4.5 Goals59.4%

2-4 Goals51.4%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Over 4.5 Goals40.6%

Under 3.5 Goals39.9%

1-3 Goals38.3%

3-4 Goals38.0%

2-3 Goals31.9%

Over 5.5 Goals24.4%

Under 2.5 Goals21.3%

1-2 Goals19.7%

Exactly 3 Goals18.6%

Exactly 2 Goals13.3%

Under 1.5 Goals8.0%

Under 0.5 Goals1.6%

Exactly 0 Goals1.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score90.9%

Home Team to Score83.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)75.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)24.5%

Away Clean Sheet16.9%

Away Win to Nil15.4%

Home Clean Sheet9.0%

Home Win to Nil7.5%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.590.9%

Home Over 0.583.0%

Away Over 1.569.2%

Home Over 1.553.0%

Away Over 2.543.1%

Away 3+ Goals43.1%

Home Exactly 130.0%

Home Exactly 226.7%

Home Over 2.526.3%

Home 3+ Goals26.3%

Away Exactly 226.1%

Away Exactly 121.7%

Home Exactly 016.9%

Away Exactly 09.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.3%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)97.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away97.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)94.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away94.1%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)92.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home92.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)85.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away85.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)82.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home82.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)71.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away71.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)67.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home67.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)52.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)47.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home47.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)32.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away32.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)28.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw19.6%

Away to win by 119.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)17.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away17.2%

Away to win by 3+17.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw15.2%

Away to win by 215.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw14.5%

Home to win by 114.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)14.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home14.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw9.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw8.3%

Home to win by 28.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)7.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away7.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)5.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home5.8%

Home to win by 3+5.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw4.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw3.8%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)3.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away3.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)2.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home2.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw2.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.4%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away1.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.569.0%

Away & Over 2.543.9%

Away & BTTS36.6%

Home & Over 2.523.4%

Home & BTTS21.1%

Draw & BTTS17.9%

Away & No BTTS15.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.514.7%

Draw & Over 2.511.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.7%

Away & Under 2.58.1%

Draw & Under 2.58.0%

Home & No BTTS7.5%

BTTS & Under 2.56.5%

Home & Under 2.55.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.584.8%

HT Over 1.556.2%

2nd Half More Goals47.9%

HT Under 1.543.8%

HT Away Win41.8%

HT Both Teams Score36.4%

HT/FT Away/Away33.7%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

HT Draw31.5%

HT Home Win26.7%

Equal Goals Each Half19.8%

HT/FT Home/Home17.1%

HT Under 0.515.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away14.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home8.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Away4.3%

HT/FT Away/Home2.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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