Netherlands · Eredivisie

Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior

Full time · 1:0

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

43% confidence

Fortuna Sittard 43.4% Draw 26.4% Excelsior 30.2%

Over 2.5 - 98% BTTS - 94%

✓ Pick was correct (1:0)

🎯 Best Pick

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

83%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

74%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-3 at 5.6%, based on the goal model.

BTTS Poisson estimate

Recent form leans to Fortuna Sittard: 11 points versus 5 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.33 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-3

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.6%

Exact-score model probability

Fortuna Sittard

D D W L W W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 11:12 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 2

Excelsior

L L D L D W

Form 1-2-3 Goals 9:15 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 2.5

Head to head · last 5

Fortuna Sittard 2wins ·1 draws ·Excelsior 2wins

Fortuna Sittard 2-1 ExcelsiorFeb 20, 2026

Fortuna Sittard 0-1 ExcelsiorOct 19, 2025

Fortuna Sittard 5-2 ExcelsiorMar 3, 2024

Fortuna Sittard 2-2 ExcelsiorAug 26, 2023

Fortuna Sittard 0-3 ExcelsiorMay 21, 2023

📈 Probability Breakdown

Fortuna Sittard win43.4%

Draw26.4%

Excelsior win30.2%

Over 1.5 goals82.8%

Over 2.5 goals97.7%

Over 3.5 goals37.4%

Both teams to score93.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

91.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away

91.9%

Home Team to Score

90.6%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.589.5%

Goal in Both Halves89.5%

Home or Away (12)83.4%

Draw or Away (X2)72.2%

Draw No Bet - Away67.8%

Away Win56.6%

Home or Draw (1X)42.4%

Draw No Bet - Home32.2%

Home Win26.8%

Draw15.6%

Exactly 1 Goal1.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.7%

Over 1.5 Goals97.1%

Over 2.5 Goals92.4%

Over 3.5 Goals83.2%

4+ Goals83.2%

Over 4.5 Goals69.5%

Over 5.5 Goals53.2%

Total Goals Odd49.5%

Total Goals Even49.5%

Under 5.5 Goals46.8%

Under 4.5 Goals30.5%

2-4 Goals27.7%

3-4 Goals23.0%

Under 3.5 Goals16.8%

1-3 Goals15.5%

2-3 Goals14.0%

Exactly 3 Goals9.3%

Under 2.5 Goals7.6%

1-2 Goals6.3%

Exactly 2 Goals4.7%

Under 1.5 Goals2.9%

Under 0.5 Goals1.3%

Exactly 0 Goals0.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score95.8%

Home Team to Score90.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)87.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)12.3%

Away Clean Sheet8.3%

Away Win to Nil8.1%

Home Clean Sheet3.2%

Home Win to Nil2.9%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.595.8%

Home Over 0.590.6%

Away Over 1.584.9%

Home Over 1.570.0%

Away Over 2.566.0%

Away 3+ Goals66.0%

Home Over 2.544.5%

Home 3+ Goals44.5%

Home Exactly 225.5%

Home Exactly 120.6%

Away Exactly 218.9%

Away Exactly 110.9%

Home Exactly 08.3%

Away Exactly 03.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)96.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)96.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away96.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)92.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home92.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)91.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away91.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)85.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home85.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)84.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away84.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)74.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home74.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)72.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away72.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)59.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home59.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)56.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)42.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home42.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)39.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away39.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)26.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)24.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away24.9%

Away to win by 3+24.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw16.7%

Away to win by 116.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw15.0%

Away to win by 215.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)14.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home14.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)13.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away13.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw12.0%

Home to win by 112.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw11.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw7.7%

Home to win by 27.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw7.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)7.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home7.1%

Home to win by 3+7.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)6.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away6.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw4.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw3.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)3.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home3.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)2.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away2.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.9%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.7%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.3%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.585.5%

Away & Over 2.554.1%

Away & BTTS48.5%

Home & Over 2.525.3%

Home & BTTS23.9%

Draw & BTTS15.3%

Draw & Over 2.513.0%

Away & No BTTS8.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.57.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.54.3%

Home & No BTTS2.9%

Draw & Under 2.52.5%

Away & Under 2.52.5%

BTTS & Under 2.52.3%

Home & Under 2.51.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.593.0%

HT Over 1.574.5%

HT Both Teams Score52.9%

2nd Half More Goals51.2%

HT Away Win47.4%

HT/FT Away/Away39.0%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Home Win27.3%

HT Under 1.525.5%

HT Draw25.3%

HT/FT Home/Home16.5%

Equal Goals Each Half16.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away12.7%

HT Under 0.57.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home7.0%

HT/FT Home/Away5.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Away/Home3.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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