Italy · Serie A

Frosinone vs Lecce

Kick-off 18:30 · Thu, Oct 29

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

65% confidence

Frosinone 65.4% Draw 20.3% Lecce 14.3%

Over 2.5 - 91% BTTS - 76%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

91%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

86%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

76%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 7.7%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Frosinone: 11 points versus 6 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.33 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.7%

Exact-score model probability

Frosinone

D W L W D W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 14:12 Scored/game 2.33 Conceded/game 2

Lecce

L W L L W L

Form 2-0-4 Goals 6:10 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.67

Head to head · last 2

Frosinone 0wins ·1 draws ·Lecce 1wins

Frosinone 1-1 LecceMar 3, 2024

Frosinone 1-2 LecceDec 16, 2023

📈 Probability Breakdown

Frosinone win65.4%

Draw20.3%

Lecce win14.3%

Over 1.5 goals78.1%

Over 2.5 goals90.8%

Over 3.5 goals32.3%

Both teams to score75.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

86.4%

Home or Away (12)

84.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

83.8%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)84.0%

Home or Draw (1X)83.0%

Draw No Bet - Home80.2%

Both Halves Over 0.578.9%

Goal in Both Halves78.9%

Home Win67.3%

Draw or Away (X2)32.3%

Draw No Bet - Away19.8%

Away Win16.6%

Draw15.7%

Exactly 1 Goal5.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.5%

Over 1.5 Goals93.2%

Over 2.5 Goals81.5%

Under 5.5 Goals71.8%

Over 3.5 Goals64.3%

4+ Goals64.3%

Under 4.5 Goals54.8%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Total Goals Even49.8%

2-4 Goals48.0%

Over 4.5 Goals45.2%

3-4 Goals36.4%

Under 3.5 Goals35.7%

1-3 Goals34.2%

2-3 Goals28.9%

Over 5.5 Goals28.2%

Under 2.5 Goals18.5%

Exactly 3 Goals17.2%

1-2 Goals16.9%

Exactly 2 Goals11.7%

Under 1.5 Goals6.8%

Under 0.5 Goals1.5%

Exactly 0 Goals1.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.5%

Away Team to Score76.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)72.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)27.1%

Home Clean Sheet22.8%

Home Win to Nil21.6%

Away Clean Sheet5.2%

Away Win to Nil4.0%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.5%

Home Over 1.579.1%

Away Over 0.576.9%

Home Over 2.556.4%

Home 3+ Goals56.4%

Away Over 1.543.3%

Away Exactly 133.6%

Away Exactly 224.8%

Away Exactly 022.8%

Home Exactly 222.7%

Away Over 2.518.5%

Away 3+ Goals18.5%

Home Exactly 115.4%

Home Exactly 05.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.2%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)96.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)92.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home92.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)92.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away92.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)83.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away83.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)83.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home83.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)69.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away69.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)67.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)51.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away51.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)48.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home48.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)32.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away32.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)29.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home29.7%

Home to win by 3+29.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw19.3%

Home to win by 119.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.3%

Home to win by 218.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)16.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)15.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home15.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw13.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw9.6%

Away to win by 19.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw8.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)7.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home7.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)7.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away7.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw4.6%

Away to win by 24.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw4.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)2.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home2.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.4%

Away to win by 3+2.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.567.7%

Home & Over 2.558.6%

Home & BTTS45.8%

Home & No BTTS21.6%

Draw & BTTS14.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.513.8%

Away & Over 2.513.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.512.9%

Away & BTTS12.6%

Draw & Over 2.59.3%

Home & Under 2.58.7%

Draw & Under 2.56.4%

BTTS & Under 2.55.2%

Away & No BTTS4.0%

Away & Under 2.53.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.586.4%

HT Over 1.559.3%

HT Home Win52.8%

2nd Half More Goals48.5%

HT/FT Home/Home46.7%

HT Under 1.540.7%

HT Both Teams Score35.7%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw28.6%

Equal Goals Each Half19.2%

HT Away Win18.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.2%

HT Under 0.513.6%

HT/FT Away/Away9.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away5.3%

HT/FT Away/Home4.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.3%

HT/FT Home/Away1.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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