Italy · Serie A

Frosinone vs Sassuolo

Kick-off 19:45 · Fri, Oct 16

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

45% confidence

Frosinone 45.0% Draw 26.3% Sassuolo 28.7%

Over 2.5 - 84% BTTS - 61%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

84%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

74%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

61%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 8.2%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Frosinone: 10 points versus 8 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.17 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.2%

Exact-score model probability

Frosinone

L W D W W L

Form 3-1-2 Goals 9:7 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.17

Sassuolo

D L W D W L

Form 2-2-2 Goals 10:10 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.67

Head to head · last 2

Frosinone 1wins ·0 draws ·Sassuolo 1wins

Frosinone 0-1 SassuoloMar 9, 2024

Frosinone 4-2 SassuoloSep 17, 2023

📈 Probability Breakdown

Frosinone win45.0%

Draw26.3%

Sassuolo win28.7%

Over 1.5 goals74.4%

Over 2.5 goals83.8%

Over 3.5 goals27.3%

Both teams to score60.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

91.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

89.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away

89.4%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)88.7%

Draw No Bet - Home87.4%

Home or Away (12)86.1%

Both Halves Over 0.576.8%

Goal in Both Halves76.8%

Home Win75.3%

Draw or Away (X2)24.3%

Draw13.4%

Draw No Bet - Away12.6%

Away Win10.8%

Exactly 1 Goal6.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.1%

Over 1.5 Goals91.9%

Over 2.5 Goals78.9%

Under 5.5 Goals75.3%

Over 3.5 Goals60.5%

4+ Goals60.5%

Under 4.5 Goals58.9%

2-4 Goals50.8%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Total Goals Even49.8%

Over 4.5 Goals41.1%

Under 3.5 Goals39.5%

3-4 Goals37.8%

1-3 Goals37.5%

2-3 Goals31.4%

Over 5.5 Goals24.7%

Under 2.5 Goals21.1%

1-2 Goals19.2%

Exactly 3 Goals18.4%

Exactly 2 Goals13.0%

Under 1.5 Goals8.1%

Under 0.5 Goals1.9%

Exactly 0 Goals1.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.0%

Away Team to Score68.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)64.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)35.1%

Home Clean Sheet31.6%

Home Win to Nil30.1%

Away Clean Sheet4.6%

Away Win to Nil3.1%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.0%

Home Over 1.580.8%

Away Over 0.568.0%

Home Over 2.559.0%

Home 3+ Goals59.0%

Away Exactly 136.3%

Away Over 1.531.7%

Away Exactly 031.6%

Home Exactly 221.8%

Away Exactly 220.8%

Home Exactly 114.2%

Away Over 2.510.9%

Away 3+ Goals10.9%

Home Exactly 04.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.5%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)95.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home95.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)95.4%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)89.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away89.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)88.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home88.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)78.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away78.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)75.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)62.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away62.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)56.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home56.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)43.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away43.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)36.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home36.9%

Home to win by 3+36.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)24.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away24.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)20.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home20.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw19.7%

Home to win by 219.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.8%

Home to win by 118.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw16.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)10.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw10.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)10.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home10.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw7.0%

Away to win by 17.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw5.9%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)4.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home4.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)3.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away3.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.7%

Away to win by 22.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.1%

Away to win by 3+1.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.563.9%

BTTS & Over 2.559.7%

Home & BTTS45.2%

Home & No BTTS30.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.519.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.515.5%

Draw & BTTS12.0%

Home & Under 2.511.4%

Away & Over 2.58.2%

Away & BTTS7.7%

Draw & Over 2.56.8%

Draw & Under 2.56.6%

BTTS & Under 2.55.2%

Away & No BTTS3.1%

Away & Under 2.52.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.585.1%

HT Home Win58.5%

HT Over 1.556.7%

HT/FT Home/Home53.9%

2nd Half More Goals48.0%

HT Under 1.543.3%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

HT Both Teams Score30.3%

HT Draw27.7%

Equal Goals Each Half19.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.5%

HT Under 0.514.9%

HT Away Win13.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.5%

HT/FT Away/Away6.0%

HT/FT Away/Home4.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away3.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.5%

HT/FT Home/Away1.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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