Germany · Bundesliga

FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen

Kick-off 14:30 · Sat, Oct 10

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

43% confidence

FSV Mainz 05 31.7% Draw 25.8% Bayer Leverkusen 42.5%

Over 2.5 - 93% BTTS - 88%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

88%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

74%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-2 at 6.3%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to FSV Mainz 05: 10 points versus 8 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.17 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.3%

Exact-score model probability

FSV Mainz 05

W L W D W L

Form 3-1-2 Goals 13:9 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 1.5

Bayer Leverkusen

W D W L D L

Form 2-2-2 Goals 12:9 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1.5

Head to head · last 5

FSV Mainz 05 0wins ·2 draws ·Bayer Leverkusen 3wins

FSV Mainz 05 1-1 Bayer LeverkusenFeb 28, 2026

FSV Mainz 05 3-4 Bayer LeverkusenOct 18, 2025

FSV Mainz 05 2-2 Bayer LeverkusenMay 17, 2025

FSV Mainz 05 0-1 Bayer LeverkusenJan 14, 2025

FSV Mainz 05 1-2 Bayer LeverkusenFeb 23, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

FSV Mainz 05 win31.7%

Draw25.8%

Bayer Leverkusen win42.5%

Over 1.5 goals80.8%

Over 2.5 goals92.6%

Over 3.5 goals35.0%

Both teams to score88.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

89.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

87.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away

87.5%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.583.1%

Goal in Both Halves83.1%

Home or Away (12)82.8%

Draw or Away (X2)75.3%

Draw No Bet - Away70.6%

Away Win58.4%

Home or Draw (1X)41.2%

Draw No Bet - Home29.4%

Home Win24.4%

Draw16.9%

Exactly 1 Goal3.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.9%

Over 1.5 Goals95.3%

Over 2.5 Goals86.4%

Over 3.5 Goals71.9%

4+ Goals71.9%

Under 5.5 Goals63.4%

Over 4.5 Goals54.1%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Total Goals Even49.8%

Under 4.5 Goals45.9%

2-4 Goals41.2%

Over 5.5 Goals36.6%

3-4 Goals32.3%

Under 3.5 Goals28.1%

1-3 Goals27.0%

2-3 Goals23.4%

Exactly 3 Goals14.5%

Under 2.5 Goals13.6%

1-2 Goals12.4%

Exactly 2 Goals8.9%

Under 1.5 Goals4.7%

Under 0.5 Goals1.1%

Exactly 0 Goals0.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score94.5%

Home Team to Score85.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)81.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)18.9%

Away Clean Sheet14.1%

Away Win to Nil13.4%

Home Clean Sheet5.2%

Home Win to Nil4.4%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.594.5%

Home Over 0.585.5%

Away Over 1.579.2%

Home Over 1.557.9%

Away Over 2.556.5%

Away 3+ Goals56.5%

Home Over 2.531.0%

Home 3+ Goals31.0%

Home Exactly 127.6%

Home Exactly 227.0%

Away Exactly 222.7%

Away Exactly 115.3%

Home Exactly 014.1%

Away Exactly 05.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)97.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away97.8%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)97.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)94.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away94.5%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)94.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home94.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)87.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away87.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)87.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home87.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)75.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home75.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)75.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away75.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)59.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home59.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)58.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)41.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home41.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)39.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away39.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)24.4%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)23.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away23.8%

Away to win by 3+23.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw18.5%

Away to win by 118.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw16.1%

Away to win by 216.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)12.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away12.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)12.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home12.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw12.2%

Home to win by 112.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw11.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw7.0%

Home to win by 27.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw6.8%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)5.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away5.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)5.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home5.2%

Home to win by 3+5.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw3.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw3.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)2.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away2.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.2%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.576.8%

Away & Over 2.553.0%

Away & BTTS45.0%

Home & Over 2.521.5%

Home & BTTS19.9%

Draw & BTTS16.1%

Away & No BTTS13.4%

Draw & Over 2.511.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.58.9%

Away & Under 2.55.4%

Draw & Under 2.55.0%

Home & No BTTS4.4%

BTTS & Under 2.54.2%

Home & Under 2.52.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.589.1%

HT Over 1.564.8%

2nd Half More Goals49.5%

HT Away Win47.3%

HT Both Teams Score43.1%

HT/FT Away/Away39.5%

HT Under 1.535.2%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw28.1%

HT Home Win24.7%

Equal Goals Each Half18.1%

HT/FT Home/Home14.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away14.1%

HT Under 0.510.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home7.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.9%

HT/FT Home/Away5.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Away/Home2.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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