Germany · Bundesliga

FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München

Kick-off 15:30 · Sat, Nov 7

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

72% confidence

FSV Mainz 05 12.6% Draw 15.5% Bayern München 71.6%

Over 2.5 - 97% BTTS - 91%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

91%

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

87%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-3 at 5.5%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Bayern München: 6 points versus 12 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 5.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-3

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.5%

Exact-score model probability

FSV Mainz 05

L L W L W L

Form 2-0-4 Goals 12:17 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 2.83

Bayern München

W D W D W D

Form 3-3-0 Goals 18:9 Scored/game 3 Conceded/game 1.5

Head to head · last 4

FSV Mainz 05 1wins ·1 draws ·Bayern München 2wins

FSV Mainz 05 3-4 Bayern MünchenApr 25, 2026

FSV Mainz 05 2-2 Bayern MünchenDec 14, 2025

FSV Mainz 05 0-3 Bayern MünchenApr 26, 2025

FSV Mainz 05 2-1 Bayern MünchenDec 14, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

FSV Mainz 05 win12.6%

Draw15.5%

Bayern München win71.6%

Over 1.5 goals91.6%

Over 2.5 goals96.8%

Over 3.5 goals58.5%

Both teams to score90.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Both Halves Over 0.5

89.9%

Goal in Both Halves

89.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

88.6%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.589.9%

Goal in Both Halves89.9%

Home or Away (12)84.7%

Draw or Away (X2)79.2%

Draw No Bet - Away77.3%

Away Win65.5%

Home or Draw (1X)32.9%

Draw No Bet - Home22.7%

Home Win19.2%

Draw13.7%

Exactly 1 Goal1.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.1%

Over 1.5 Goals96.6%

Over 2.5 Goals92.2%

Over 3.5 Goals83.3%

4+ Goals83.3%

Over 4.5 Goals70.0%

Over 5.5 Goals53.9%

Total Goals Odd49.2%

Total Goals Even49.2%

Under 5.5 Goals46.1%

Under 4.5 Goals30.0%

2-4 Goals26.7%

3-4 Goals22.2%

Under 3.5 Goals16.7%

1-3 Goals14.8%

2-3 Goals13.3%

Exactly 3 Goals8.9%

Under 2.5 Goals7.8%

1-2 Goals5.9%

Exactly 2 Goals4.4%

Under 1.5 Goals3.4%

Under 0.5 Goals1.9%

Exactly 0 Goals0.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score96.1%

Home Team to Score87.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)85.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)14.4%

Away Clean Sheet10.8%

Away Win to Nil10.6%

Home Clean Sheet2.2%

Home Win to Nil2.0%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.596.1%

Away Over 1.587.6%

Home Over 0.587.5%

Away Over 2.571.5%

Away 3+ Goals71.5%

Home Over 1.563.7%

Home Over 2.537.3%

Home 3+ Goals37.3%

Home Exactly 226.4%

Home Exactly 123.9%

Away Exactly 216.1%

Home Exactly 010.8%

Away Exactly 18.5%

Away Exactly 02.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.2%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)96.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away96.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)94.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away94.1%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)94.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)88.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away88.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)88.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home88.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)79.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away79.2%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)78.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home78.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)65.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)65.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home65.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)49.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home49.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)49.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away49.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)33.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away33.0%

Away to win by 3+33.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)32.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home32.9%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)19.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away19.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)19.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw16.3%

Away to win by 116.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw16.2%

Away to win by 216.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw13.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)10.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away10.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)9.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home9.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw9.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw9.5%

Home to win by 19.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw5.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw5.5%

Home to win by 25.5%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)4.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away4.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)4.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home4.2%

Home to win by 3+4.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw2.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.583.5%

Away & Over 2.562.8%

Away & BTTS54.9%

Home & Over 2.518.1%

Home & BTTS17.2%

Draw & BTTS13.5%

Draw & Over 2.511.4%

Away & No BTTS10.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.54.1%

Away & Under 2.52.7%

Draw & Under 2.52.3%

BTTS & Under 2.52.1%

Home & No BTTS2.0%

Home & Under 2.51.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.593.3%

HT Over 1.575.2%

HT Away Win54.2%

HT Both Teams Score51.6%

2nd Half More Goals51.4%

HT/FT Away/Away47.2%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.524.8%

HT Draw23.9%

HT Home Win21.9%

Equal Goals Each Half16.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away13.7%

HT/FT Home/Home11.5%

HT Under 0.56.7%

HT/FT Home/Away6.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home5.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.4%

HT/FT Away/Home2.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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