Germany · Bundesliga

FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07

Kick-off 14:30 · Sat, Aug 29

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

43% confidence

FSV Mainz 05 43.2% Draw 30.4% SC Paderborn 07 26.4%

Over 2.5 - 89% BTTS - 84%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

89%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

84%

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

74%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-2 at 6%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to SC Paderborn 07: 7 points versus 8 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.90 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

Exact-score model probability

FSV Mainz 05

W L W L D L

Form 2-1-3 Goals 9:10 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.67

SC Paderborn 07

W D W D L

Form 2-2-1 Goals 7:8 Scored/game 1.4 Conceded/game 1.6

📈 Probability Breakdown

FSV Mainz 05 win43.2%

Draw30.4%

SC Paderborn 07 win26.4%

Over 1.5 goals65.6%

Over 2.5 goals89.0%

Over 3.5 goals18.2%

Both teams to score84.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

90.3%

Over 2.5 Goals

88.6%

Away Team to Score

87.4%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.585.2%

Goal in Both Halves85.2%

Home or Away (12)83.0%

Home or Draw (1X)74.2%

Draw No Bet - Home69.5%

Home Win57.7%

Draw or Away (X2)41.8%

Draw No Bet - Away30.5%

Away Win25.3%

Draw16.5%

Exactly 1 Goal2.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals99.0%

Over 1.5 Goals96.1%

Over 2.5 Goals88.6%

Over 3.5 Goals75.6%

4+ Goals75.6%

Over 4.5 Goals58.8%

Under 5.5 Goals58.7%

Total Goals Even49.8%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

Over 5.5 Goals41.3%

Under 4.5 Goals41.2%

2-4 Goals37.3%

3-4 Goals29.8%

Under 3.5 Goals24.4%

1-3 Goals23.3%

2-3 Goals20.4%

Exactly 3 Goals13.0%

Under 2.5 Goals11.4%

1-2 Goals10.4%

Exactly 2 Goals7.5%

Under 1.5 Goals3.9%

Under 0.5 Goals1.0%

Exactly 0 Goals0.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.0%

Away Team to Score87.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)83.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)16.6%

Home Clean Sheet12.1%

Home Win to Nil11.6%

Away Clean Sheet4.5%

Away Win to Nil4.0%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.0%

Away Over 0.587.4%

Home Over 1.580.9%

Away Over 1.561.8%

Home Over 2.559.2%

Home 3+ Goals59.2%

Away Over 2.534.9%

Away 3+ Goals34.9%

Away Exactly 226.9%

Away Exactly 125.5%

Home Exactly 221.7%

Home Exactly 114.0%

Away Exactly 012.1%

Home Exactly 04.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.3%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.3%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)97.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.3%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)93.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away93.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)93.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home93.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)86.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away86.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)86.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home86.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)75.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away75.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)74.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home74.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)59.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away59.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)57.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)41.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away41.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)39.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home39.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)25.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)24.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home24.0%

Home to win by 3+24.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.9%

Home to win by 117.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.7%

Home to win by 215.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)13.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away13.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)12.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home12.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw12.2%

Away to win by 112.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw11.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw7.3%

Away to win by 27.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw6.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)5.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)5.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away5.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home5.8%

Away to win by 3+5.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw3.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)2.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)2.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away2.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home2.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.2%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.579.8%

Home & Over 2.553.3%

Home & BTTS46.1%

Away & Over 2.522.9%

Away & BTTS21.3%

Draw & BTTS16.0%

Draw & Over 2.512.4%

Home & No BTTS11.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.57.3%

Home & Under 2.54.4%

Draw & Under 2.54.2%

Away & No BTTS4.0%

BTTS & Under 2.53.6%

Away & Under 2.52.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.590.3%

HT Over 1.567.8%

2nd Half More Goals50.0%

HT Home Win47.2%

HT Both Teams Score46.0%

HT/FT Home/Home39.2%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.532.2%

HT Draw27.2%

HT Away Win25.6%

Equal Goals Each Half17.6%

HT/FT Away/Away15.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home13.6%

HT Under 0.59.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away7.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.5%

HT/FT Away/Home5.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Home/Away3.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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