Germany · Bundesliga

FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen

Kick-off 14:30 · Sat, Oct 24

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

56% confidence

FSV Mainz 05 56.4% Draw 23.1% Werder Bremen 20.5%

Over 2.5 - 96% BTTS - 92%

🎯 Best Pick

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

81%

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

80%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-2 at 6.4%, based on the goal model.

BTTS Poisson estimate

Recent form leans to FSV Mainz 05: 10 points versus 9 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.33 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.4%

Exact-score model probability

FSV Mainz 05

W L W L W D

Form 3-1-2 Goals 14:10 Scored/game 2.33 Conceded/game 1.67

Werder Bremen

D D W D W L

Form 2-3-1 Goals 12:12 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 2

Head to head · last 5

FSV Mainz 05 1wins ·1 draws ·Werder Bremen 3wins

FSV Mainz 05 2-0 Werder BremenMar 15, 2026

FSV Mainz 05 1-1 Werder BremenNov 1, 2025

FSV Mainz 05 0-1 Werder BremenJan 31, 2025

FSV Mainz 05 1-2 Werder BremenSep 15, 2024

FSV Mainz 05 0-1 Werder BremenFeb 3, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

FSV Mainz 05 win56.4%

Draw23.1%

Werder Bremen win20.5%

Over 1.5 goals80.5%

Over 2.5 goals95.9%

Over 3.5 goals35.2%

Both teams to score91.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

91.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home

91.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

91.1%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.584.1%

Goal in Both Halves84.1%

Home or Away (12)81.9%

Home or Draw (1X)67.3%

Draw No Bet - Home60.5%

Draw or Away (X2)50.2%

Home Win49.5%

Draw No Bet - Away39.5%

Away Win32.4%

Draw17.9%

Exactly 1 Goal3.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals99.1%

Over 1.5 Goals95.8%

Over 2.5 Goals87.6%

Over 3.5 Goals73.9%

4+ Goals73.9%

Under 5.5 Goals61.1%

Over 4.5 Goals56.5%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Under 4.5 Goals43.5%

2-4 Goals39.3%

Over 5.5 Goals38.9%

3-4 Goals31.2%

Under 3.5 Goals26.1%

1-3 Goals25.2%

2-3 Goals22.0%

Exactly 3 Goals13.8%

Under 2.5 Goals12.4%

1-2 Goals11.4%

Exactly 2 Goals8.2%

Under 1.5 Goals4.2%

Under 0.5 Goals0.9%

Exactly 0 Goals0.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score93.5%

Away Team to Score89.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)83.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)16.2%

Home Clean Sheet10.3%

Home Win to Nil9.6%

Away Clean Sheet6.2%

Away Win to Nil5.6%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.593.5%

Away Over 0.589.4%

Home Over 1.576.2%

Away Over 1.566.1%

Home Over 2.552.2%

Home 3+ Goals52.2%

Away Over 2.539.5%

Away 3+ Goals39.5%

Away Exactly 226.6%

Home Exactly 224.0%

Away Exactly 123.4%

Home Exactly 117.3%

Away Exactly 010.3%

Home Exactly 06.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.4%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.5%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.2%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)96.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away96.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)91.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home91.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)91.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away91.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)81.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away81.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)81.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home81.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)67.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away67.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)67.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home67.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)50.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away50.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)49.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)32.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)31.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home31.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)17.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away17.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)17.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home17.8%

Home to win by 3+17.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.6%

Home to win by 117.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw14.4%

Away to win by 114.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw14.0%

Home to win by 214.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw9.4%

Away to win by 29.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw9.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)8.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home8.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)8.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away8.5%

Away to win by 3+8.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw5.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw5.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)3.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home3.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)3.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away3.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.9%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.4%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.579.8%

Home & Over 2.545.2%

Home & BTTS39.8%

Away & Over 2.529.3%

Away & BTTS26.8%

Draw & BTTS17.2%

Draw & Over 2.513.2%

Home & No BTTS9.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.58.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.57.9%

Away & No BTTS5.6%

Draw & Under 2.54.7%

Home & Under 2.54.3%

BTTS & Under 2.54.1%

Away & Under 2.53.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.589.7%

HT Over 1.566.2%

2nd Half More Goals49.7%

HT Both Teams Score45.7%

HT Home Win41.4%

HT Under 1.533.8%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT/FT Home/Home32.4%

HT Away Win30.2%

HT Draw28.3%

HT/FT Away/Away20.0%

Equal Goals Each Half17.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home12.4%

HT Under 0.510.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away8.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Away/Home4.9%

HT/FT Home/Away3.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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