England · Premier League

Fulham vs Chelsea

Kick-off 20:00 · Mon, Aug 24

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

38% confidence

Fulham 38.4% Draw 28.6% Chelsea 33.0%

Over 2.5 - 54% BTTS - 28%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

84%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

No Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

72%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

71%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-0 at 13.3%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Fulham: 8 points versus 4 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles suggest a tighter game: the two sides combine for 1.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

13.3%

Exact-score model probability

Fulham

W D L L W D

Form 2-2-2 Goals 4:5 Scored/game 0.67 Conceded/game 0.83

Chelsea

L W L D L L

Form 1-1-4 Goals 5:11 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1.83

Head to head · last 5

Fulham 2wins ·0 draws ·Chelsea 3wins

Fulham 2-1 ChelseaJan 7, 2026

Fulham 0-2 ChelseaAug 30, 2025

Fulham 1-2 ChelseaApr 20, 2025

Fulham 2-1 ChelseaDec 26, 2024

Fulham 0-1 ChelseaJan 13, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Fulham win38.4%

Draw28.6%

Chelsea win33.0%

Over 1.5 goals74.6%

Over 2.5 goals53.8%

Over 3.5 goals26.6%

Both teams to score28.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 4.5 Goals

86.9%

Home or Draw (1X)

85.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

85.7%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)85.7%

Draw No Bet - Home81.9%

Home or Away (12)78.6%

Home Win64.4%

Both Halves Over 0.553.6%

Goal in Both Halves53.6%

Draw or Away (X2)35.6%

Draw21.4%

Exactly 1 Goal18.6%

Draw No Bet - Away18.1%

Away Win14.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals94.7%

Over 0.5 Goals93.0%

Under 4.5 Goals86.9%

Over 1.5 Goals74.4%

Under 3.5 Goals72.3%

1-3 Goals65.3%

2-4 Goals61.3%

Under 2.5 Goals50.4%

Total Goals Even50.2%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

Over 2.5 Goals49.6%

2-3 Goals46.7%

1-2 Goals43.4%

3-4 Goals36.5%

Over 3.5 Goals27.7%

4+ Goals27.7%

Under 1.5 Goals25.6%

Exactly 2 Goals24.8%

Exactly 3 Goals21.9%

Over 4.5 Goals13.1%

Under 0.5 Goals7.0%

Exactly 0 Goals7.0%

Over 5.5 Goals5.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score85.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)54.8%

Away Team to Score53.2%

Home Clean Sheet46.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)45.2%

Home Win to Nil39.8%

Away Clean Sheet15.0%

Away Win to Nil8.0%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.585.0%

Home Over 1.556.6%

Away Over 0.553.2%

Away Exactly 046.8%

Away Exactly 135.5%

Home Over 2.529.6%

Home 3+ Goals29.6%

Home Exactly 128.4%

Home Exactly 227.0%

Away Over 1.517.7%

Home Exactly 015.0%

Away Exactly 213.5%

Away Over 2.54.2%

Away 3+ Goals4.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home100.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.8%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.1%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home95.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)92.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away92.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)85.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home85.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)81.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away81.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)64.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)61.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away61.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)38.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home38.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)35.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away35.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw25.5%

Home to win by 125.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw19.9%

Home to win by 219.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)18.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home18.9%

Home to win by 3+18.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)14.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw11.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw10.2%

Away to win by 110.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)7.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home7.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw5.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)4.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away4.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw3.2%

Away to win by 23.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.9%

Away to win by 3+0.9%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.540.3%

Home & No BTTS39.8%

Home & Over 2.538.4%

BTTS & Over 2.535.1%

Home & Under 2.525.9%

Home & BTTS24.6%

Draw & Under 2.517.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.514.5%

Draw & BTTS14.4%

BTTS & Under 2.510.1%

Away & No BTTS8.0%

Away & Under 2.57.3%

Away & Over 2.56.9%

Away & BTTS6.3%

Draw & Over 2.54.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.569.8%

HT Under 1.566.4%

HT Home Win46.2%

2nd Half More Goals43.3%

HT/FT Home/Home41.5%

HT Draw39.7%

HT Over 1.533.6%

1st Half More Goals31.0%

HT Under 0.530.2%

Equal Goals Each Half25.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home20.2%

HT Both Teams Score16.6%

HT Away Win14.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw13.7%

HT/FT Away/Away7.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away5.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.9%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.9%

HT/FT Away/Home2.6%

HT/FT Home/Away0.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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