Belgium · Jupiler Pro League

Genk vs Gent

Kick-off 15:00 · Sun, Sep 13

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

48% confidence

Genk 48.0% Draw 27.5% Gent 24.5%

Over 2.5 - 50% BTTS - 41%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

87%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

76%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-0 at 16.1%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Gent: 9 points versus 14 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Genk 3 wins, 2 draws, Gent 0 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

16.1%

Exact-score model probability

Genk

W L D W D D

Form 2-3-1 Goals 6:4 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 0.67

Gent

W D W D W W

Form 4-2-0 Goals 8:3 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 0.5

Head to head · last 5

Genk 3wins ·2 draws ·Gent 0wins

Genk 0-0 GentMay 31, 2026

Genk 3-0 GentMar 1, 2026

Genk 1-1 GentNov 9, 2025

Genk 4-1 GentMay 18, 2025

Genk 4-0 GentMar 30, 2025

📈 Probability Breakdown

Genk win48.0%

Draw27.5%

Gent win24.5%

Over 1.5 goals74.9%

Over 2.5 goals50.1%

Over 3.5 goals27.0%

Both teams to score41.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Draw (1X)

91.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

91.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home

91.7%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)91.7%

Draw No Bet - Home89.9%

Home or Away (12)81.6%

Home Win73.4%

Both Halves Over 0.551.6%

Goal in Both Halves51.6%

Draw or Away (X2)26.6%

Exactly 1 Goal19.8%

Draw18.4%

Draw No Bet - Away10.1%

Away Win8.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals95.4%

Over 0.5 Goals92.2%

Under 4.5 Goals88.4%

Under 3.5 Goals74.6%

Over 1.5 Goals72.4%

1-3 Goals66.8%

2-4 Goals60.8%

Under 2.5 Goals53.0%

Total Goals Even50.3%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

Over 2.5 Goals47.0%

2-3 Goals47.0%

1-2 Goals45.2%

3-4 Goals35.4%

Under 1.5 Goals27.6%

Over 3.5 Goals25.4%

4+ Goals25.4%

Exactly 2 Goals25.3%

Exactly 3 Goals21.6%

Over 4.5 Goals11.6%

Under 0.5 Goals7.8%

Exactly 0 Goals7.8%

Over 5.5 Goals4.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score87.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)64.9%

Home Clean Sheet59.6%

Home Win to Nil51.9%

Away Team to Score40.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)35.1%

Away Clean Sheet13.0%

Away Win to Nil5.2%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.587.0%

Home Over 1.560.4%

Away Exactly 059.6%

Away Over 0.540.4%

Home Over 2.533.4%

Home 3+ Goals33.4%

Away Exactly 130.8%

Home Exactly 227.1%

Home Exactly 126.5%

Home Exactly 013.0%

Away Over 1.59.5%

Away Exactly 28.0%

Away Over 2.51.6%

Away 3+ Goals1.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home100.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)98.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home98.3%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)96.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away96.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)91.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home91.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)89.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away89.2%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)75.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away75.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)73.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)52.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away52.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)47.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home47.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)26.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away26.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw25.8%

Home to win by 125.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)25.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home25.0%

Home to win by 3+25.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw22.6%

Home to win by 222.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw14.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)10.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home10.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)8.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw6.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw6.5%

Away to win by 16.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)3.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home3.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)1.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away1.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.5%

Away to win by 21.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.3%

Away to win by 3+0.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & No BTTS51.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.544.8%

Home & Over 2.541.4%

Home & Under 2.532.0%

BTTS & Over 2.526.9%

Home & BTTS21.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.520.1%

Draw & Under 2.515.9%

Draw & BTTS10.6%

BTTS & Under 2.58.2%

Away & No BTTS5.2%

Away & Under 2.55.0%

Away & Over 2.53.2%

Away & BTTS3.0%

Draw & Over 2.52.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.568.4%

HT Under 1.568.1%

HT Home Win52.1%

HT/FT Home/Home48.9%

2nd Half More Goals42.8%

HT Draw38.8%

HT Over 1.531.9%

HT Under 0.531.6%

1st Half More Goals30.8%

Equal Goals Each Half26.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home22.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw12.8%

HT Both Teams Score12.5%

HT Away Win9.2%

HT/FT Away/Away4.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away3.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.8%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.8%

HT/FT Away/Home2.2%

HT/FT Home/Away0.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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