Italy · Serie A

Genoa vs Como

Kick-off 19:45 · Fri, Sep 4

📊 Our Prediction

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

54% confidence

Genoa 19.7% Draw 25.9% Como 54.4%

Over 2.5 - 56% BTTS - 41%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

83%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

80%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 0-1 at 15.8%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Como: 2 points versus 14 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles suggest a tighter game: the two sides combine for 1.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

0-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

15.8%

Exact-score model probability

Genoa

L L L L D D

Form 0-2-4 Goals 1:6 Scored/game 0.17 Conceded/game 1

Como

W D W W W D

Form 4-2-0 Goals 9:3 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 0.5

Head to head · last 4

Genoa 0wins ·2 draws ·Como 2wins

Genoa 0-2 ComoApr 26, 2026

Genoa 1-1 ComoSep 15, 2025

Genoa 0-1 ComoApr 27, 2025

Genoa 1-1 ComoNov 7, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Genoa win19.7%

Draw25.9%

Como win54.4%

Over 1.5 goals67.2%

Over 2.5 goals56.4%

Over 3.5 goals20.3%

Both teams to score40.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 0.5 Goals

92.0%

Draw or Away (X2)

90.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)

90.7%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)90.7%

Draw No Bet - Away88.5%

Home or Away (12)80.6%

Away Win71.4%

Both Halves Over 0.551.0%

Goal in Both Halves51.0%

Home or Draw (1X)28.6%

Exactly 1 Goal20.2%

Draw19.3%

Draw No Bet - Home11.5%

Home Win9.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals95.6%

Over 0.5 Goals92.0%

Under 4.5 Goals88.8%

Under 3.5 Goals75.2%

Over 1.5 Goals71.8%

1-3 Goals67.2%

2-4 Goals60.6%

Under 2.5 Goals53.7%

Total Goals Even50.3%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

2-3 Goals47.0%

Over 2.5 Goals46.3%

1-2 Goals45.7%

3-4 Goals35.1%

Under 1.5 Goals28.2%

Exactly 2 Goals25.5%

Over 3.5 Goals24.8%

4+ Goals24.8%

Exactly 3 Goals21.5%

Over 4.5 Goals11.2%

Under 0.5 Goals8.0%

Exactly 0 Goals8.0%

Over 5.5 Goals4.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score86.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)63.6%

Away Clean Sheet57.7%

Away Win to Nil49.7%

Home Team to Score42.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)36.4%

Home Clean Sheet13.8%

Home Win to Nil5.9%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.586.1%

Away Over 1.558.8%

Home Exactly 057.7%

Home Over 0.542.3%

Away Over 2.531.7%

Home Exactly 131.7%

Away 3+ Goals31.7%

Away Exactly 127.4%

Away Exactly 227.1%

Away Exactly 013.8%

Home Over 1.510.6%

Home Exactly 28.7%

Home Over 2.51.8%

Home 3+ Goals1.8%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away100.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away99.6%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)97.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away97.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)90.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away90.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)90.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home90.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)76.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home76.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)71.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)54.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home54.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)45.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away45.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)28.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home28.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw26.1%

Away to win by 126.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)23.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away23.2%

Away to win by 3+23.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw22.1%

Away to win by 222.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw13.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)9.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away9.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)9.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw7.3%

Home to win by 17.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw6.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)3.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away3.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw2.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)2.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home2.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw1.7%

Home to win by 21.7%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away1.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home0.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw0.3%

Home to win by 3+0.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

Away & No BTTS49.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.545.0%

Away & Over 2.540.0%

Away & Under 2.531.4%

BTTS & Over 2.527.8%

Away & BTTS21.7%

No BTTS & Over 2.518.6%

Draw & Under 2.516.7%

Draw & BTTS11.4%

BTTS & Under 2.58.7%

Home & No BTTS5.9%

Home & Under 2.55.6%

Home & Over 2.53.7%

Home & BTTS3.4%

Draw & Over 2.52.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.568.5%

HT Over 0.567.9%

HT Away Win50.5%

HT/FT Away/Away47.0%

2nd Half More Goals42.7%

HT Draw39.5%

HT Under 0.532.1%

HT Over 1.531.5%

1st Half More Goals30.7%

Equal Goals Each Half26.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away22.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw13.4%

HT Both Teams Score12.9%

HT Home Win10.0%

HT/FT Home/Home4.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home4.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.0%

HT/FT Home/Away2.2%

HT/FT Away/Home0.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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