Italy · Serie A

Genoa vs Fiorentina

Kick-off 14:00 · Sat, Oct 10

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

38% confidence

Genoa 34.7% Draw 27.7% Fiorentina 37.6%

Over 2.5 - 74% BTTS - 69%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

78%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

72%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

69%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-2 at 9.7%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Fiorentina: 1 points versus 5 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles suggest a tighter game: the two sides combine for 1.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.7%

Exact-score model probability

Genoa

L D L L L L

Form 0-1-5 Goals 3:11 Scored/game 0.5 Conceded/game 1.83

Fiorentina

D W L L L D

Form 1-2-3 Goals 7:13 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 2.17

Head to head · last 5

Genoa 0wins ·3 draws ·Fiorentina 2wins

Genoa 0-0 FiorentinaMay 10, 2026

Genoa 2-2 FiorentinaNov 9, 2025

Genoa 1-2 FiorentinaFeb 2, 2025

Genoa 0-1 FiorentinaOct 31, 2024

Genoa 1-1 FiorentinaApr 15, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Genoa win34.7%

Draw27.7%

Fiorentina win37.6%

Over 1.5 goals69.2%

Over 2.5 goals74.2%

Over 3.5 goals22.1%

Both teams to score69.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

90.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home

90.9%

Away Team to Score

89.1%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)80.9%

Home or Away (12)80.2%

Draw No Bet - Away76.2%

Both Halves Over 0.566.1%

Goal in Both Halves66.1%

Away Win61.1%

Home or Draw (1X)38.8%

Draw No Bet - Home23.8%

Draw19.7%

Home Win19.1%

Exactly 1 Goal11.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.6%

Under 5.5 Goals87.2%

Over 1.5 Goals85.1%

Under 4.5 Goals74.7%

Over 2.5 Goals65.8%

2-4 Goals59.8%

Under 3.5 Goals56.1%

1-3 Goals52.7%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Over 3.5 Goals43.9%

4+ Goals43.9%

2-3 Goals41.3%

3-4 Goals40.4%

Under 2.5 Goals34.2%

1-2 Goals30.8%

Over 4.5 Goals25.3%

Exactly 3 Goals21.9%

Exactly 2 Goals19.4%

Under 1.5 Goals14.9%

Over 5.5 Goals12.8%

Under 0.5 Goals3.4%

Exactly 0 Goals3.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score89.1%

Home Team to Score68.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)61.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)38.6%

Away Clean Sheet31.1%

Away Win to Nil27.7%

Home Clean Sheet10.9%

Home Win to Nil7.5%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.589.1%

Home Over 0.568.9%

Away Over 1.565.0%

Away Over 2.538.2%

Away 3+ Goals38.2%

Home Exactly 136.3%

Home Over 1.532.6%

Home Exactly 031.1%

Away Exactly 226.8%

Away Exactly 124.1%

Home Exactly 221.2%

Home Over 2.511.4%

Home 3+ Goals11.4%

Away Exactly 010.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.4%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)97.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away97.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)92.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away92.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)90.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home90.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)80.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away80.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)79.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home79.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)61.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home61.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)61.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)38.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home38.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)38.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away38.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw22.5%

Away to win by 122.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)20.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away20.4%

Away to win by 3+20.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)19.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw18.3%

Away to win by 218.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw11.8%

Home to win by 111.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw11.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)9.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away9.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)7.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home7.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw5.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw5.1%

Home to win by 25.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)3.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away3.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw2.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)2.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home2.2%

Home to win by 3+2.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw1.7%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away1.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.552.6%

Away & Over 2.545.3%

Away & BTTS33.4%

Away & No BTTS27.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.525.4%

Draw & BTTS16.4%

Away & Under 2.515.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.513.1%

Home & Over 2.512.8%

Draw & Under 2.512.1%

Home & BTTS11.6%

BTTS & Under 2.58.8%

Draw & Over 2.57.6%

Home & No BTTS7.5%

Home & Under 2.56.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.578.2%

HT Under 1.554.9%

HT Away Win46.2%

2nd Half More Goals45.8%

HT Over 1.545.1%

HT/FT Away/Away40.1%

HT Draw34.8%

1st Half More Goals31.8%

HT Both Teams Score25.8%

Equal Goals Each Half22.4%

HT Under 0.521.8%

HT Home Win19.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away17.5%

HT/FT Home/Home10.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw10.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home6.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.6%

HT/FT Home/Away3.6%

HT/FT Away/Home1.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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