Italy · Serie A

Genoa vs Frosinone

Kick-off 14:00 · Sat, Sep 12

📊 Our Prediction

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

38% confidence

Genoa 33.2% Draw 28.4% Frosinone 38.4%

Over 2.5 - 56% BTTS - 28%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

83%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

72%

No Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

72%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 0-2 at 15%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Frosinone: 1 points versus 12 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Genoa 0 wins, 1 draws, Frosinone 1 wins in the last 2 meetings.

Numbers behind this Away +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

0-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

15%

Exact-score model probability

Genoa

L L L L L D

Form 0-1-5 Goals 2:10 Scored/game 0.33 Conceded/game 1.67

Frosinone

W W L W W L

Form 4-0-2 Goals 12:4 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 0.67

Head to head · last 2

Genoa 0wins ·1 draws ·Frosinone 1wins

Genoa 1-1 FrosinoneMar 30, 2024

Genoa 1-2 FrosinoneNov 26, 2023

📈 Probability Breakdown

Genoa win33.2%

Draw28.4%

Frosinone win38.4%

Over 1.5 goals67.0%

Over 2.5 goals55.5%

Over 3.5 goals20.1%

Both teams to score28.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Draw or Away (X2)

91.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)

91.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away

91.5%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)91.5%

Draw No Bet - Away89.7%

Home or Away (12)82.7%

Away Win74.2%

Both Halves Over 0.555.6%

Goal in Both Halves55.6%

Home or Draw (1X)25.8%

Exactly 1 Goal17.4%

Draw17.3%

Draw No Bet - Home10.3%

Home Win8.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals93.9%

Over 0.5 Goals93.6%

Under 4.5 Goals85.4%

Over 1.5 Goals76.2%

Under 3.5 Goals70.1%

1-3 Goals63.7%

2-4 Goals61.6%

Over 2.5 Goals52.1%

Total Goals Even50.2%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Under 2.5 Goals47.9%

2-3 Goals46.3%

1-2 Goals41.5%

3-4 Goals37.5%

Over 3.5 Goals29.9%

4+ Goals29.9%

Exactly 2 Goals24.1%

Under 1.5 Goals23.8%

Exactly 3 Goals22.2%

Over 4.5 Goals14.6%

Under 0.5 Goals6.4%

Exactly 0 Goals6.3%

Over 5.5 Goals6.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score88.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)60.8%

Away Clean Sheet55.8%

Away Win to Nil49.5%

Home Team to Score44.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)39.2%

Home Clean Sheet11.3%

Home Win to Nil5.0%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.588.7%

Away Over 1.564.0%

Home Exactly 055.8%

Home Over 0.544.2%

Away Over 2.537.1%

Away 3+ Goals37.1%

Home Exactly 132.5%

Away Exactly 226.9%

Away Exactly 124.6%

Home Over 1.511.6%

Away Exactly 011.3%

Home Exactly 29.5%

Home Over 2.52.1%

Home 3+ Goals2.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away100.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away99.6%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)98.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away98.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)95.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home95.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)91.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away91.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)87.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home87.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)74.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)72.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home72.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)50.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home50.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)49.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away49.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)27.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away27.2%

Away to win by 3+27.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)25.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home25.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw24.6%

Away to win by 124.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw22.4%

Away to win by 222.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw14.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)12.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away12.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)8.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw7.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw6.6%

Home to win by 16.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)4.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away4.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw3.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)1.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home1.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw1.6%

Home to win by 21.6%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away1.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home0.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw0.3%

Home to win by 3+0.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

Away & No BTTS49.5%

Away & Over 2.545.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.539.8%

BTTS & Over 2.531.1%

Away & Under 2.528.8%

Away & BTTS24.7%

No BTTS & Over 2.521.0%

Draw & Under 2.514.3%

Draw & BTTS11.0%

BTTS & Under 2.58.0%

Home & No BTTS5.0%

Home & Under 2.54.8%

Home & Over 2.53.7%

Home & BTTS3.5%

Draw & Over 2.52.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.571.2%

HT Under 1.564.7%

HT Away Win53.5%

HT/FT Away/Away50.1%

2nd Half More Goals43.7%

HT Draw36.8%

HT Over 1.535.3%

1st Half More Goals31.1%

HT Under 0.528.8%

Equal Goals Each Half25.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away21.7%

HT Both Teams Score14.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw11.4%

HT Home Win9.8%

HT/FT Home/Home4.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home3.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.9%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.9%

HT/FT Home/Away2.5%

HT/FT Away/Home0.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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