Italy · Serie A

Genoa vs Napoli

Kick-off 19:45 · Sat, Aug 22

📊 Our Prediction

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

50% confidence

Genoa 22.2% Draw 27.8% Napoli 50.1%

Over 2.5 - 41% BTTS - 27%

🎯 Best Pick

Away Win

AI verdict (fallback)

⚠️ AIs disagree

65%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 0-1 at 12.8%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Napoli: 5 points versus 10 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Genoa 0 wins, 2 draws, Napoli 3 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Away +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

0-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

12.8%

Exact-score model probability

Genoa

L L D D L W

Form 1-2-3 Goals 3:6 Scored/game 0.5 Conceded/game 1

Napoli

W W L D W L

Form 3-1-2 Goals 10:5 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 0.83

Head to head · last 5

Genoa 0wins ·2 draws ·Napoli 3wins

Genoa 2-3 NapoliFeb 7, 2026

Genoa 1-2 NapoliOct 5, 2025

Genoa 2-2 NapoliMay 11, 2025

Genoa 1-2 NapoliDec 21, 2024

Genoa 1-1 NapoliFeb 17, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Genoa win22.2%

Draw27.8%

Napoli win50.1%

Over 1.5 goals66.1%

Over 2.5 goals41.1%

Over 3.5 goals19.1%

Both teams to score26.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

91.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home

91.4%

Draw or Away (X2)

86.6%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)86.6%

Draw No Bet - Away83.2%

Home or Away (12)79.5%

Away Win66.2%

Both Halves Over 0.555.1%

Goal in Both Halves55.1%

Home or Draw (1X)33.8%

Draw20.5%

Exactly 1 Goal17.7%

Draw No Bet - Home16.8%

Home Win13.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals94.0%

Over 0.5 Goals93.5%

Under 4.5 Goals85.7%

Over 1.5 Goals75.8%

Under 3.5 Goals70.6%

1-3 Goals64.1%

2-4 Goals61.5%

Over 2.5 Goals51.5%

Total Goals Even50.2%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Under 2.5 Goals48.5%

2-3 Goals46.4%

1-2 Goals42.0%

3-4 Goals37.3%

Over 3.5 Goals29.4%

4+ Goals29.4%

Exactly 2 Goals24.3%

Under 1.5 Goals24.2%

Exactly 3 Goals22.1%

Over 4.5 Goals14.3%

Under 0.5 Goals6.5%

Exactly 0 Goals6.5%

Over 5.5 Goals6.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score86.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)54.3%

Home Team to Score53.0%

Away Clean Sheet46.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)45.7%

Away Win to Nil40.5%

Home Clean Sheet13.8%

Home Win to Nil7.3%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.586.2%

Away Over 1.558.9%

Home Over 0.553.0%

Home Exactly 046.9%

Home Exactly 135.5%

Away Over 2.531.8%

Away 3+ Goals31.8%

Away Exactly 127.3%

Away Exactly 227.1%

Home Over 1.517.5%

Away Exactly 013.8%

Home Exactly 213.4%

Home Over 2.54.1%

Home 3+ Goals4.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away100.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away99.2%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.1%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)97.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home97.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)96.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away96.2%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)91.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home91.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)86.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away86.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)79.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home79.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)66.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)59.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home59.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)41.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away41.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)33.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home33.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw25.2%

Away to win by 125.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)20.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away20.6%

Away to win by 3+20.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw20.4%

Away to win by 220.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)13.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw12.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw9.6%

Home to win by 19.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)8.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away8.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw5.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)3.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home3.8%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)3.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw3.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away3.0%

Home to win by 23.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw2.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home0.8%

Home to win by 3+0.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw0.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

Away & Over 2.540.6%

Away & No BTTS40.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.538.7%

BTTS & Over 2.536.0%

Away & BTTS25.7%

Away & Under 2.525.5%

Draw & Under 2.516.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.515.5%

Draw & BTTS14.0%

BTTS & Under 2.59.7%

Home & No BTTS7.3%

Home & Under 2.56.7%

Home & Over 2.56.6%

Home & BTTS6.1%

Draw & Over 2.54.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.570.8%

HT Under 1.565.1%

HT Away Win47.7%

2nd Half More Goals43.6%

HT/FT Away/Away43.1%

HT Draw38.7%

HT Over 1.534.9%

1st Half More Goals31.1%

HT Under 0.529.2%

Equal Goals Each Half25.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away20.3%

HT Both Teams Score17.0%

HT Home Win13.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw12.9%

HT/FT Home/Home7.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home5.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.8%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.8%

HT/FT Home/Away2.7%

HT/FT Away/Home0.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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