UEFA Europa Conference League

Gent vs Aarhus

Kick-off 17:45 · Thu, Oct 15

📊 Our Prediction

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

72% confidence

Gent 71.9% Draw 19.3% Aarhus 8.8%

Over 2.5 - 57% BTTS - 46%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

91%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

82%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

72%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-0 at 13.3%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Gent: 14 points versus 6 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.66 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +3.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

13.3%

Exact-score model probability

Gent

W D W D W W

Form 4-2-0 Goals 8:3 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 0.5

Aarhus

L L L W W L

Form 2-0-4 Goals 8:15 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 2.5

📈 Probability Breakdown

Gent win71.9%

Draw19.3%

Aarhus win8.8%

Over 1.5 goals80.5%

Over 2.5 goals56.6%

Over 3.5 goals34.2%

Both teams to score45.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Draw (1X)

90.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

90.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home

90.1%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)90.1%

Draw No Bet - Home88.1%

Home or Away (12)82.8%

Home Win72.9%

Both Halves Over 0.559.1%

Goal in Both Halves59.1%

Draw or Away (X2)27.0%

Draw17.2%

Exactly 1 Goal15.4%

Draw No Bet - Away11.9%

Away Win9.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals94.7%

Under 5.5 Goals92.1%

Under 4.5 Goals82.3%

Over 1.5 Goals79.3%

Under 3.5 Goals65.8%

2-4 Goals61.7%

1-3 Goals60.5%

Over 2.5 Goals56.6%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

2-3 Goals45.1%

Under 2.5 Goals43.4%

3-4 Goals38.9%

1-2 Goals38.1%

Over 3.5 Goals34.2%

4+ Goals34.2%

Exactly 2 Goals22.7%

Exactly 3 Goals22.4%

Under 1.5 Goals20.7%

Over 4.5 Goals17.7%

Over 5.5 Goals7.9%

Under 0.5 Goals5.3%

Exactly 0 Goals5.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score89.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)55.2%

Home Clean Sheet50.0%

Away Team to Score50.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)44.8%

Home Win to Nil44.8%

Away Clean Sheet10.4%

Away Win to Nil5.2%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.589.5%

Home Over 1.566.0%

Away Over 0.550.0%

Away Exactly 050.0%

Home Over 2.539.3%

Home 3+ Goals39.3%

Away Exactly 134.6%

Home Exactly 226.6%

Home Exactly 123.6%

Away Over 1.515.3%

Away Exactly 212.0%

Home Exactly 010.4%

Away Over 2.53.3%

Away 3+ Goals3.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.4%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)97.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home97.4%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)95.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away95.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)90.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home90.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)87.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away87.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)72.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)72.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away72.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)50.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away50.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)49.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home49.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)27.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home27.4%

Home to win by 3+27.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)27.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away27.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw23.8%

Home to win by 123.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw21.8%

Home to win by 221.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw14.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)12.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home12.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)9.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw7.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw7.3%

Away to win by 17.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)5.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home5.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw3.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)2.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away2.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.0%

Away to win by 22.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.5%

Away to win by 3+0.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.547.8%

Home & No BTTS44.8%

BTTS & Over 2.536.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.535.2%

Home & BTTS28.2%

Home & Under 2.525.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.520.0%

Draw & Under 2.513.4%

Draw & BTTS12.0%

BTTS & Under 2.58.2%

Away & No BTTS5.2%

Away & Over 2.55.0%

Away & Under 2.54.9%

Away & BTTS4.6%

Draw & Over 2.53.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.573.5%

HT Under 1.561.6%

HT Home Win53.2%

HT/FT Home/Home49.4%

2nd Half More Goals44.4%

HT Over 1.538.4%

HT Draw35.5%

1st Half More Goals31.4%

HT Under 0.526.5%

Equal Goals Each Half24.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home20.8%

HT Both Teams Score17.1%

HT Away Win11.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw10.7%

HT/FT Away/Away5.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away4.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.2%

HT/FT Away/Home2.8%

HT/FT Home/Away0.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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