Spain · La Liga

Getafe vs Celta Vigo

Kick-off 18:00 · Mon, Sep 7

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

36% confidence

Getafe 36.1% Draw 33.4% Celta Vigo 30.5%

Over 2.5 - 26% BTTS - 36%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

90%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

70%

No Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

64%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-0 at 14.5%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Getafe: 9 points versus 6 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles suggest a tighter game: the two sides combine for 1.33 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

14.5%

Exact-score model probability

Getafe

L W W L W L

Form 3-0-3 Goals 5:6 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1

Celta Vigo

D L L D W D

Form 1-3-2 Goals 3:5 Scored/game 0.5 Conceded/game 0.83

Head to head · last 5

Getafe 2wins ·1 draws ·Celta Vigo 2wins

Getafe 0-0 Celta VigoFeb 1, 2026

Getafe 2-0 Celta VigoAug 17, 2025

Getafe 1-2 Celta VigoMay 24, 2025

Getafe 0-1 Celta VigoNov 4, 2024

Getafe 3-2 Celta VigoFeb 11, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Getafe win36.1%

Draw33.4%

Celta Vigo win30.5%

Over 1.5 goals52.4%

Over 2.5 goals25.7%

Over 3.5 goals10.1%

Both teams to score35.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

89.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

89.2%

Over 0.5 Goals

86.7%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)69.5%

Home or Away (12)69.4%

Draw or Away (X2)61.1%

Draw No Bet - Home56.0%

Draw No Bet - Away44.0%

Both Halves Over 0.540.0%

Goal in Both Halves40.0%

Home Win38.9%

Draw30.6%

Away Win30.5%

Exactly 1 Goal26.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals98.3%

Under 4.5 Goals94.6%

Over 0.5 Goals86.7%

Under 3.5 Goals85.4%

1-3 Goals72.1%

Under 2.5 Goals67.2%

Over 1.5 Goals59.9%

2-4 Goals54.4%

1-2 Goals53.9%

Total Goals Even50.9%

Total Goals Odd49.1%

2-3 Goals45.3%

Under 1.5 Goals40.1%

Over 2.5 Goals32.8%

3-4 Goals27.4%

Exactly 2 Goals27.1%

Exactly 3 Goals18.2%

Over 3.5 Goals14.6%

4+ Goals14.6%

Under 0.5 Goals13.3%

Exactly 0 Goals13.3%

Over 4.5 Goals5.4%

Over 5.5 Goals1.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score66.3%

Away Team to Score60.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)59.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)40.1%

Home Clean Sheet39.5%

Away Clean Sheet33.7%

Home Win to Nil26.2%

Away Win to Nil20.3%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.566.3%

Away Over 0.560.5%

Away Exactly 039.5%

Home Exactly 136.7%

Away Exactly 136.7%

Home Exactly 033.7%

Home Over 1.529.7%

Away Over 1.523.8%

Home Exactly 220.0%

Away Exactly 217.0%

Home Over 2.59.7%

Home 3+ Goals9.7%

Away Over 2.56.8%

Away 3+ Goals6.8%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)95.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away95.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)89.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home89.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)84.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away84.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)69.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home69.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)61.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away61.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)38.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)30.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw23.2%

Home to win by 123.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw19.7%

Away to win by 119.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)15.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home15.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw10.9%

Home to win by 210.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)10.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away10.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw7.9%

Away to win by 27.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)4.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home4.9%

Home to win by 3+4.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw3.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.9%

Away to win by 3+2.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.553.8%

Draw & Under 2.526.8%

BTTS & Over 2.526.7%

Home & No BTTS26.2%

Home & Under 2.522.4%

Away & No BTTS20.3%

Away & Under 2.518.1%

Draw & BTTS17.3%

Home & Over 2.516.5%

BTTS & Under 2.513.4%

Home & BTTS12.7%

Away & Over 2.512.4%

Away & BTTS10.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.56.1%

Draw & Over 2.53.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.577.0%

HT Over 0.559.7%

HT Draw49.0%

HT Under 0.540.3%

2nd Half More Goals40.0%

Equal Goals Each Half30.5%

1st Half More Goals29.5%

HT Home Win28.0%

HT Away Win23.0%

HT Over 1.523.0%

HT/FT Home/Home22.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw21.5%

HT/FT Away/Away16.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.2%

HT Both Teams Score13.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away12.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.5%

HT/FT Away/Home1.6%

HT/FT Home/Away1.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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