UEFA Europa Conference League

Getafe vs FC Lugano

Kick-off 17:45 · Thu, Oct 22

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

64% confidence

Getafe 13.8% Draw 22.2% FC Lugano 64.0%

Over 2.5 - 58% BTTS - 53%

🎯 Best Pick

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

86%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

82%

Away Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

64%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 0-2 at 10.9%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to FC Lugano: 4 points versus 13 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.90 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

0-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

10.9%

Exact-score model probability

Getafe

D L D L D D

Form 0-4-2 Goals 3:7 Scored/game 0.5 Conceded/game 1.17

FC Lugano

W D W W W

Form 4-1-0 Goals 12:4 Scored/game 2.4 Conceded/game 0.8

📈 Probability Breakdown

Getafe win13.8%

Draw22.2%

FC Lugano win64.0%

Over 1.5 goals81.5%

Over 2.5 goals58.0%

Over 3.5 goals35.6%

Both teams to score53.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 5.5 Goals

91.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

90.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home

90.7%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)85.0%

Draw No Bet - Away81.3%

Home or Away (12)80.2%

Away Win65.2%

Both Halves Over 0.560.1%

Goal in Both Halves60.1%

Home or Draw (1X)34.8%

Draw19.8%

Draw No Bet - Home18.7%

Home Win15.0%

Exactly 1 Goal14.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.1%

Under 5.5 Goals91.5%

Under 4.5 Goals81.3%

Over 1.5 Goals80.3%

Under 3.5 Goals64.4%

2-4 Goals61.6%

1-3 Goals59.5%

Over 2.5 Goals58.0%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-3 Goals44.7%

Under 2.5 Goals42.0%

3-4 Goals39.3%

1-2 Goals37.1%

Over 3.5 Goals35.6%

4+ Goals35.6%

Exactly 3 Goals22.4%

Exactly 2 Goals22.3%

Under 1.5 Goals19.7%

Over 4.5 Goals18.7%

Over 5.5 Goals8.5%

Under 0.5 Goals4.9%

Exactly 0 Goals4.9%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score87.9%

Home Team to Score59.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)52.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)47.8%

Away Clean Sheet40.6%

Away Win to Nil35.7%

Home Clean Sheet12.1%

Home Win to Nil7.2%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.587.9%

Away Over 1.562.3%

Home Over 0.559.4%

Home Exactly 040.6%

Home Exactly 136.6%

Away Over 2.535.3%

Away 3+ Goals35.3%

Away Exactly 227.0%

Away Exactly 125.6%

Home Over 1.522.8%

Home Exactly 216.5%

Away Exactly 012.1%

Home Over 2.56.3%

Home 3+ Goals6.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.7%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away98.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)95.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away95.2%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)90.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home90.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)85.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away85.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)78.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home78.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)65.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)58.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home58.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)41.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away41.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)34.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home34.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw23.9%

Away to win by 123.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)21.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away21.5%

Away to win by 3+21.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw19.8%

Away to win by 219.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)15.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw12.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw10.2%

Home to win by 110.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)9.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away9.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw5.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)4.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home4.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw3.6%

Home to win by 23.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)3.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away3.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw2.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home1.2%

Home to win by 3+1.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away1.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw0.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

Away & Over 2.543.9%

BTTS & Over 2.542.9%

Away & No BTTS35.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.532.7%

Away & BTTS29.5%

Away & Under 2.521.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.515.1%

Draw & BTTS14.9%

Draw & Under 2.514.3%

BTTS & Under 2.59.4%

Home & Over 2.58.6%

Home & BTTS7.8%

Home & No BTTS7.2%

Home & Under 2.56.4%

Draw & Over 2.55.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.574.2%

HT Under 1.560.7%

HT Away Win47.9%

2nd Half More Goals44.6%

HT/FT Away/Away42.8%

HT Over 1.539.3%

HT Draw36.7%

1st Half More Goals31.4%

HT Under 0.525.8%

Equal Goals Each Half23.9%

HT Both Teams Score20.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away19.3%

HT Home Win15.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw11.6%

HT/FT Home/Home8.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home5.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.1%

HT/FT Home/Away3.1%

HT/FT Away/Home1.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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