Spain · La Liga

Getafe vs Malaga

Kick-off 13:00 · Sun, Sep 20

📊 Our Prediction

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

41% confidence

Getafe 40.6% Draw 35.5% Malaga 23.9%

Over 2.5 - 21% BTTS - 28%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

76%

No Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

72%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-0 at 15.4%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Getafe: 8 points versus 3 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles suggest a tighter game: the two sides combine for 1.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +3.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

15.4%

Exact-score model probability

Getafe

L D D L W W

Form 2-2-2 Goals 6:5 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 0.83

Malaga

L D D L D L

Form 0-3-3 Goals 3:11 Scored/game 0.5 Conceded/game 1.83

📈 Probability Breakdown

Getafe win40.6%

Draw35.5%

Malaga win23.9%

Over 1.5 goals47.1%

Over 2.5 goals21.2%

Over 3.5 goals7.6%

Both teams to score27.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

88.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

87.8%

Home Over 1.5

85.7%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home98.5%

Home or Draw (1X)97.6%

Home or Away (12)93.6%

Home Win92.2%

Both Halves Over 0.572.5%

Goal in Both Halves72.5%

Exactly 1 Goal8.1%

Draw or Away (X2)6.8%

Draw5.4%

Draw No Bet - Away1.5%

Away Win1.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.9%

Over 1.5 Goals88.7%

Under 5.5 Goals81.7%

Over 2.5 Goals73.0%

Under 4.5 Goals66.7%

2-4 Goals55.4%

Over 3.5 Goals52.8%

4+ Goals52.8%

Total Goals Even49.6%

Total Goals Odd49.3%

Under 3.5 Goals47.2%

1-3 Goals44.0%

3-4 Goals39.7%

2-3 Goals35.9%

Over 4.5 Goals33.3%

Under 2.5 Goals27.0%

1-2 Goals23.8%

Exactly 3 Goals20.2%

Over 5.5 Goals18.3%

Exactly 2 Goals15.7%

Under 1.5 Goals11.3%

Under 0.5 Goals3.1%

Exactly 0 Goals2.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)72.8%

Home Clean Sheet70.9%

Home Win to Nil68.8%

Away Team to Score28.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)27.2%

Away Clean Sheet2.9%

Away Win to Nil0.8%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.0%

Home Over 1.585.7%

Away Exactly 070.9%

Home Over 2.567.4%

Home 3+ Goals67.4%

Away Over 0.528.0%

Away Exactly 123.6%

Home Exactly 218.3%

Home Exactly 110.4%

Away Over 1.54.4%

Away Exactly 23.9%

Home Exactly 02.9%

Away Over 2.50.5%

Away 3+ Goals0.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home98.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)97.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home97.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)92.2%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)87.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)79.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home79.4%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)76.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away76.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)60.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home60.4%

Home to win by 3+60.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)59.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away59.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)39.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home39.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)38.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away38.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)22.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home22.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw20.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)19.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away19.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw19.0%

Home to win by 219.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw17.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw12.7%

Home to win by 112.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw11.6%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)11.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home11.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)6.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away6.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw1.2%

Away to win by 11.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw0.2%

Away to win by 20.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Away to win by 3+0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.571.6%

Home & No BTTS68.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.548.3%

BTTS & Over 2.524.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.523.5%

Home & BTTS23.3%

Home & Under 2.520.5%

Draw & Under 2.54.6%

Draw & BTTS3.3%

BTTS & Under 2.52.5%

Draw & Over 2.50.8%

Away & Under 2.50.8%

Away & No BTTS0.8%

Away & Over 2.50.6%

Away & BTTS0.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.582.4%

HT Home Win74.8%

HT/FT Home/Home73.8%

HT Over 1.551.8%

HT Under 1.548.2%

2nd Half More Goals47.1%

1st Half More Goals32.1%

HT Draw22.0%

Equal Goals Each Half20.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.8%

HT Under 0.517.6%

HT Both Teams Score11.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw3.7%

HT Away Win3.2%

HT/FT Away/Home1.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw0.9%

HT/FT Home/Draw0.9%

HT/FT Away/Away0.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away0.6%

HT/FT Home/Away0.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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