Spain · La Liga

Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano

Kick-off 20:00 · Mon, Oct 19

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

37% confidence

Getafe 35.0% Draw 36.9% Rayo Vallecano 28.1%

Over 2.5 - 21% BTTS - 59%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

72%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 11.6%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Rayo Vallecano: 3 points versus 8 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Getafe 0 wins, 3 draws, Rayo Vallecano 2 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

11.6%

Exact-score model probability

Getafe

L D L D D L

Form 0-3-3 Goals 2:7 Scored/game 0.33 Conceded/game 1.17

Rayo Vallecano

D W L W L D

Form 2-2-2 Goals 10:14 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 2.33

Head to head · last 5

Getafe 0wins ·3 draws ·Rayo Vallecano 2wins

Getafe 0-2 Rayo VallecanoMay 3, 2026

Getafe 1-1 Rayo VallecanoJan 2, 2026

Getafe 0-1 Rayo VallecanoMay 2, 2025

Getafe 0-0 Rayo VallecanoAug 24, 2024

Getafe 0-0 Rayo VallecanoApr 13, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Getafe win35.0%

Draw36.9%

Rayo Vallecano win28.1%

Over 1.5 goals46.7%

Over 2.5 goals20.6%

Over 3.5 goals7.3%

Both teams to score59.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

91.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

91.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

87.8%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)77.0%

Home or Away (12)75.5%

Draw No Bet - Home69.6%

Both Halves Over 0.553.7%

Goal in Both Halves53.7%

Home Win52.6%

Draw or Away (X2)47.4%

Draw No Bet - Away30.4%

Draw24.5%

Away Win23.0%

Exactly 1 Goal18.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals94.6%

Over 0.5 Goals93.0%

Under 4.5 Goals86.8%

Over 1.5 Goals74.4%

Under 3.5 Goals72.2%

1-3 Goals65.2%

2-4 Goals61.3%

Under 2.5 Goals50.3%

Total Goals Even50.2%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Over 2.5 Goals49.7%

2-3 Goals46.7%

1-2 Goals43.3%

3-4 Goals36.6%

Over 3.5 Goals27.8%

4+ Goals27.8%

Under 1.5 Goals25.6%

Exactly 2 Goals24.7%

Exactly 3 Goals22.0%

Over 4.5 Goals13.2%

Under 0.5 Goals7.0%

Exactly 0 Goals7.0%

Over 5.5 Goals5.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score80.9%

Away Team to Score63.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)51.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)48.7%

Home Clean Sheet36.5%

Home Win to Nil29.6%

Away Clean Sheet19.1%

Away Win to Nil12.1%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.580.9%

Away Over 0.563.5%

Home Over 1.549.3%

Away Exactly 136.8%

Away Exactly 036.5%

Home Exactly 131.6%

Away Over 1.526.7%

Home Exactly 226.2%

Home Over 2.523.1%

Home 3+ Goals23.1%

Home Exactly 019.1%

Away Exactly 218.5%

Away Over 2.58.2%

Away 3+ Goals8.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)95.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away95.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)91.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home91.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)87.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away87.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)77.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home77.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)71.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away71.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)52.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)47.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away47.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)28.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home28.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw24.3%

Home to win by 124.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)23.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.1%

Home to win by 216.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw14.8%

Away to win by 114.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)12.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home12.2%

Home to win by 3+12.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)8.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away8.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw7.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw6.0%

Away to win by 26.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)4.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home4.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw3.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.3%

Away to win by 3+2.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.539.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.538.6%

Home & Over 2.531.4%

Home & No BTTS29.6%

Home & BTTS23.0%

Home & Under 2.521.1%

Draw & Under 2.518.6%

Draw & BTTS17.5%

Away & Over 2.512.4%

Away & No BTTS12.1%

BTTS & Under 2.511.6%

Away & BTTS10.9%

Away & Under 2.510.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.0%

Draw & Over 2.55.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.569.8%

HT Under 1.566.3%

2nd Half More Goals43.3%

HT Draw41.2%

HT Home Win38.6%

HT Over 1.533.7%

HT/FT Home/Home32.5%

1st Half More Goals31.0%

HT Under 0.530.2%

Equal Goals Each Half25.8%

HT Away Win20.1%

HT Both Teams Score19.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw15.0%

HT/FT Away/Away12.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away8.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.7%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.7%

HT/FT Away/Home2.6%

HT/FT Home/Away1.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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