Portugal · Primeira Liga

GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia

Kick-off 20:15 · Mon, Aug 24

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

58% confidence

GIL Vicente 58.0% Draw 23.7% Casa Pia 18.2%

Over 2.5 - 42% BTTS - 36%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

82%

No Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

64%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-0 at 18.9%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Casa Pia: 7 points versus 8 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles suggest a tighter game: the two sides combine for 1.34 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

18.9%

Exact-score model probability

GIL Vicente

W L L D W L

Form 2-1-3 Goals 4:8 Scored/game 0.67 Conceded/game 1.33

Casa Pia

L L W D D W

Form 2-2-2 Goals 4:9 Scored/game 0.67 Conceded/game 1.5

Head to head · last 5

GIL Vicente 1wins ·3 draws ·Casa Pia 1wins

GIL Vicente 2-1 Casa PiaApr 27, 2026

GIL Vicente 1-1 Casa PiaDec 13, 2025

GIL Vicente 0-1 Casa PiaFeb 22, 2025

GIL Vicente 1-1 Casa PiaSep 22, 2024

GIL Vicente 0-0 Casa PiaMar 3, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

GIL Vicente win58.0%

Draw23.7%

Casa Pia win18.2%

Over 1.5 goals67.5%

Over 2.5 goals41.8%

Over 3.5 goals21.2%

Both teams to score36.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

91.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away

91.1%

Under 3.5 Goals

87.3%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)81.7%

Draw No Bet - Home74.1%

Home or Away (12)70.6%

Home Win52.3%

Draw or Away (X2)47.7%

Both Halves Over 0.537.5%

Goal in Both Halves37.5%

Draw29.4%

Exactly 1 Goal28.3%

Draw No Bet - Away25.9%

Away Win18.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals98.6%

Under 4.5 Goals95.5%

Under 3.5 Goals87.3%

Over 0.5 Goals85.2%

1-3 Goals72.5%

Under 2.5 Goals70.0%

Over 1.5 Goals57.0%

1-2 Goals55.3%

2-4 Goals52.5%

Total Goals Even51.1%

Total Goals Odd48.9%

2-3 Goals44.2%

Under 1.5 Goals43.0%

Over 2.5 Goals30.0%

Exactly 2 Goals27.0%

3-4 Goals25.4%

Exactly 3 Goals17.2%

Under 0.5 Goals14.8%

Exactly 0 Goals14.8%

Over 3.5 Goals12.7%

4+ Goals12.7%

Over 4.5 Goals4.5%

Over 5.5 Goals1.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score72.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)66.2%

Home Clean Sheet53.3%

Away Team to Score46.7%

Home Win to Nil38.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)33.8%

Away Clean Sheet27.7%

Away Win to Nil13.0%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.572.3%

Away Exactly 053.3%

Away Over 0.546.7%

Home Over 1.536.7%

Home Exactly 135.6%

Away Exactly 133.6%

Home Exactly 027.7%

Home Exactly 222.8%

Home Over 2.513.9%

Home 3+ Goals13.9%

Away Over 1.513.2%

Away Exactly 210.6%

Away Over 2.52.6%

Away 3+ Goals2.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home100.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)97.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away97.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)95.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home95.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)91.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away91.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)81.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home81.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)75.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away75.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)52.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)47.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away47.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw27.7%

Home to win by 127.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)24.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home24.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)18.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.8%

Home to win by 215.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw13.6%

Away to win by 113.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)8.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home8.9%

Home to win by 3+8.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw6.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)4.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away4.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw3.8%

Away to win by 23.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)2.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home2.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.9%

Away to win by 3+0.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.558.1%

Home & No BTTS38.5%

Home & Under 2.531.1%

Draw & Under 2.526.7%

BTTS & Over 2.521.8%

Home & Over 2.521.3%

Draw & BTTS14.6%

Home & BTTS13.9%

Away & No BTTS13.0%

Away & Under 2.512.2%

BTTS & Under 2.511.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.1%

Away & Over 2.56.1%

Away & BTTS5.3%

Draw & Over 2.52.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.578.7%

HT Over 0.557.7%

HT Draw49.5%

HT Under 0.542.3%

2nd Half More Goals39.3%

HT Home Win35.5%

Equal Goals Each Half31.5%

HT/FT Home/Home31.0%

1st Half More Goals29.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw21.8%

HT Over 1.521.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home19.7%

HT Away Win15.0%

HT Both Teams Score10.8%

HT/FT Away/Away9.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away8.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.8%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.8%

HT/FT Away/Home1.6%

HT/FT Home/Away0.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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