Brazil · Serie A

Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense

Full time · 2:0

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

52% confidence

Gremio 30.4% Draw 17.5% Atletico Paranaense 52.1%

Over 2.5 - 92% BTTS - 88%

✓ Pick was correct (2:0)

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

88%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

83%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-3 at 5.8%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Atletico Paranaense: 6 points versus 8 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.84 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-3

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.8%

Exact-score model probability

Gremio

W L D D D L

Form 1-3-2 Goals 7:9 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1.5

Atletico Paranaense

D L W W D L

Form 2-2-2 Goals 10:11 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.83

Head to head · last 1

Gremio 0wins ·1 draws ·Atletico Paranaense 0wins

Gremio 0-0 Atletico ParanaenseMay 3, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

Gremio win30.4%

Draw17.5%

Atletico Paranaense win52.1%

Over 1.5 goals97.9%

Over 2.5 goals91.8%

Over 3.5 goals81.0%

Both teams to score87.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

92.0%

Over 2.5 Goals

91.2%

Home Team to Score

91.0%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.587.8%

Goal in Both Halves87.8%

Home or Away (12)82.7%

Draw or Away (X2)68.8%

Draw No Bet - Away63.0%

Away Win52.1%

Home or Draw (1X)47.3%

Draw No Bet - Home37.0%

Home Win30.6%

Draw16.6%

Exactly 1 Goal2.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals99.0%

Over 1.5 Goals97.0%

Over 2.5 Goals91.2%

Over 3.5 Goals80.5%

4+ Goals80.5%

Over 4.5 Goals65.4%

Under 5.5 Goals51.6%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

Total Goals Even49.7%

Over 5.5 Goals48.4%

Under 4.5 Goals34.6%

2-4 Goals31.6%

3-4 Goals25.8%

Under 3.5 Goals19.5%

1-3 Goals18.5%

2-3 Goals16.5%

Exactly 3 Goals10.8%

Under 2.5 Goals8.8%

1-2 Goals7.8%

Exactly 2 Goals5.7%

Under 1.5 Goals3.0%

Under 0.5 Goals1.0%

Exactly 0 Goals0.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score95.1%

Home Team to Score91.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)87.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)13.0%

Away Clean Sheet8.4%

Away Win to Nil8.1%

Home Clean Sheet4.3%

Home Win to Nil3.9%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.595.1%

Home Over 0.591.0%

Away Over 1.581.5%

Home Over 1.570.2%

Away Over 2.560.3%

Away 3+ Goals60.3%

Home Over 2.544.5%

Home 3+ Goals44.5%

Home Exactly 225.7%

Away Exactly 221.3%

Home Exactly 120.8%

Away Exactly 113.5%

Home Exactly 08.4%

Away Exactly 04.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.1%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)97.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)95.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away95.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)94.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home94.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)90.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away90.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)88.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home88.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)82.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away82.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)78.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home78.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)68.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away68.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)64.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home64.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)52.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)47.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home47.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)35.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away35.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)30.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)20.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away20.8%

Away to win by 3+20.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)17.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home17.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw17.0%

Away to win by 117.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw14.3%

Away to win by 214.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw13.3%

Home to win by 113.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)10.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away10.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw10.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw8.8%

Home to win by 28.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)8.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home8.4%

Home to win by 3+8.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw6.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw4.9%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)4.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away4.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)3.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home3.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw3.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)1.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away1.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.9%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.4%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.584.2%

Away & Over 2.549.2%

Away & BTTS44.1%

Home & Over 2.528.6%

Home & BTTS26.7%

Draw & BTTS16.3%

Draw & Over 2.513.4%

Away & No BTTS8.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.57.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.55.3%

Home & No BTTS3.9%

Draw & Under 2.53.2%

Away & Under 2.52.9%

BTTS & Under 2.52.8%

Home & Under 2.52.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.592.0%

HT Over 1.571.8%

HT Both Teams Score50.8%

2nd Half More Goals50.7%

HT Away Win43.9%

HT/FT Away/Away35.0%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Home Win29.6%

HT Under 1.528.2%

HT Draw26.5%

HT/FT Home/Home19.0%

Equal Goals Each Half16.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away12.2%

HT Under 0.58.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home8.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.2%

HT/FT Home/Away5.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Away/Home3.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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