Brazil · Serie A

Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc

Kick-off 22:30 · Sun, Aug 30

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

64% confidence

Gremio 64.0% Draw 18.8% Chapecoense-sc 17.2%

Over 2.5 - 77% BTTS - 71%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

83%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

71%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 8.5%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Gremio: 7 points versus 5 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.5%

Exact-score model probability

Gremio

L L W D L W

Form 2-1-3 Goals 7:10 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1.67

Chapecoense-sc

W D L D L L

Form 1-2-3 Goals 7:13 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 2.17

📈 Probability Breakdown

Gremio win64.0%

Draw18.8%

Chapecoense-sc win17.2%

Over 1.5 goals92.2%

Over 2.5 goals77.2%

Over 3.5 goals58.0%

Both teams to score70.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

91.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

86.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away

86.8%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)82.7%

Home or Draw (1X)81.8%

Draw No Bet - Home78.2%

Both Halves Over 0.575.0%

Goal in Both Halves75.0%

Home Win64.7%

Draw or Away (X2)35.1%

Draw No Bet - Away21.8%

Away Win18.0%

Draw17.1%

Exactly 1 Goal6.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.1%

Over 1.5 Goals91.2%

Under 5.5 Goals77.6%

Over 2.5 Goals77.0%

Under 4.5 Goals61.7%

Over 3.5 Goals57.8%

4+ Goals57.8%

2-4 Goals52.8%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Under 3.5 Goals42.2%

1-3 Goals40.3%

3-4 Goals38.7%

Over 4.5 Goals38.3%

2-3 Goals33.3%

Under 2.5 Goals23.0%

Over 5.5 Goals22.4%

1-2 Goals21.1%

Exactly 3 Goals19.2%

Exactly 2 Goals14.1%

Under 1.5 Goals8.8%

Under 0.5 Goals1.9%

Exactly 0 Goals1.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score93.0%

Away Team to Score75.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)69.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)30.2%

Home Clean Sheet24.9%

Home Win to Nil23.2%

Away Clean Sheet6.8%

Away Win to Nil5.1%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.593.0%

Away Over 0.575.0%

Home Over 1.574.6%

Home Over 2.550.0%

Home 3+ Goals50.0%

Away Over 1.540.4%

Away Exactly 134.6%

Away Exactly 024.9%

Home Exactly 224.6%

Away Exactly 224.0%

Home Exactly 118.4%

Away Over 2.516.4%

Away 3+ Goals16.4%

Home Exactly 06.8%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.1%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)97.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.3%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)94.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away94.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)92.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home92.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)86.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away86.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)81.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home81.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)73.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away73.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)64.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)55.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away55.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)44.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home44.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)35.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away35.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)26.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home26.0%

Home to win by 3+26.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw20.4%

Home to win by 120.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.3%

Home to win by 218.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)18.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)13.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home13.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw12.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw10.6%

Away to win by 110.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)7.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away7.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw7.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)5.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home5.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw4.9%

Away to win by 24.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw3.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.5%

Away to win by 3+2.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)2.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home2.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.563.5%

Home & Over 2.554.0%

Home & BTTS41.6%

Home & No BTTS23.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.516.4%

Draw & BTTS15.4%

Away & Over 2.514.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.513.6%

Away & BTTS12.9%

Home & Under 2.510.7%

Draw & Over 2.59.0%

Draw & Under 2.58.1%

BTTS & Under 2.56.4%

Away & No BTTS5.1%

Away & Under 2.54.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.584.0%

HT Over 1.554.7%

HT Home Win50.2%

2nd Half More Goals47.7%

HT Under 1.545.3%

HT/FT Home/Home43.9%

HT Both Teams Score32.6%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

HT Draw30.6%

Equal Goals Each Half20.1%

HT Away Win19.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.5%

HT Under 0.516.0%

HT/FT Away/Away10.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.1%

HT/FT Draw/Away5.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.5%

HT/FT Away/Home4.4%

HT/FT Home/Away1.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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