Brazil · Serie A

Gremio vs Cruzeiro

Kick-off 20:00 · Sun, Oct 18

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

45% confidence

Gremio 45.0% Draw 20.6% Cruzeiro 34.4%

Over 2.5 - 83% BTTS - 81%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

81%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

79%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-2 at 7%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Cruzeiro: 3 points versus 9 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

Exact-score model probability

Gremio

D D D L L L

Form 0-3-3 Goals 5:8 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1.33

Cruzeiro

L W W L W L

Form 3-0-3 Goals 12:11 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1.83

📈 Probability Breakdown

Gremio win45.0%

Draw20.6%

Cruzeiro win34.4%

Over 1.5 goals94.8%

Over 2.5 goals83.0%

Over 3.5 goals66.3%

Both teams to score80.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

91.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home

91.0%

Home Team to Score

90.9%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)80.7%

Both Halves Over 0.579.8%

Goal in Both Halves79.8%

Home or Draw (1X)64.9%

Draw No Bet - Home56.6%

Draw or Away (X2)54.2%

Home Win45.7%

Draw No Bet - Away43.4%

Away Win35.0%

Draw19.2%

Exactly 1 Goal4.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.8%

Over 1.5 Goals93.9%

Over 2.5 Goals82.9%

Under 5.5 Goals69.8%

Over 3.5 Goals66.2%

4+ Goals66.2%

Under 4.5 Goals52.7%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Over 4.5 Goals47.3%

2-4 Goals46.6%

3-4 Goals35.6%

Under 3.5 Goals33.8%

1-3 Goals32.6%

Over 5.5 Goals30.2%

2-3 Goals27.7%

Under 2.5 Goals17.1%

Exactly 3 Goals16.7%

1-2 Goals15.9%

Exactly 2 Goals11.0%

Under 1.5 Goals6.1%

Under 0.5 Goals1.2%

Exactly 0 Goals1.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score90.9%

Away Team to Score87.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)80.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)20.0%

Home Clean Sheet12.0%

Home Win to Nil10.9%

Away Clean Sheet8.9%

Away Win to Nil7.9%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.590.9%

Away Over 0.587.9%

Home Over 1.569.4%

Away Over 1.562.5%

Home Over 2.543.3%

Home 3+ Goals43.3%

Away Over 2.535.5%

Away 3+ Goals35.5%

Away Exactly 226.9%

Home Exactly 226.1%

Away Exactly 125.4%

Home Exactly 121.6%

Away Exactly 012.0%

Home Exactly 08.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.5%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.1%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)93.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away93.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)91.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home91.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)85.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away85.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)80.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home80.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)72.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away72.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)64.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home64.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)54.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away54.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)45.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)35.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)27.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home27.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)19.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away19.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.0%

Home to win by 118.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw15.8%

Away to win by 115.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)14.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home14.3%

Home to win by 3+14.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw13.3%

Home to win by 213.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw10.3%

Away to win by 210.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)8.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away8.9%

Away to win by 3+8.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw8.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)6.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home6.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw5.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw3.9%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)3.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away3.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.9%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.8%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.3%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.574.5%

Home & Over 2.540.0%

Home & BTTS34.8%

Away & Over 2.530.3%

Away & BTTS27.2%

Draw & BTTS18.1%

Draw & Over 2.512.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.511.5%

Home & No BTTS10.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.4%

Away & No BTTS7.9%

Draw & Under 2.56.6%

Home & Under 2.55.7%

BTTS & Under 2.55.5%

Away & Under 2.54.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.587.0%

HT Over 1.560.5%

2nd Half More Goals48.7%

HT Both Teams Score40.7%

HT Under 1.539.5%

HT Home Win38.3%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Away Win31.4%

HT Draw30.4%

HT/FT Home/Home29.2%

HT/FT Away/Away21.6%

Equal Goals Each Half19.0%

HT Under 0.513.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home12.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away9.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Away/Home4.3%

HT/FT Home/Away3.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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