Brazil · Serie A

Gremio vs Palmeiras

Kick-off 15:00 · Sun, Sep 20

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

68% confidence

Gremio 16.4% Draw 16.1% Palmeiras 67.5%

Over 2.5 - 86% BTTS - 78%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

86%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

84%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

78%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-3 at 7.1%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Palmeiras: 3 points versus 9 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-3

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.1%

Exact-score model probability

Gremio

L L L W L L

Form 1-0-5 Goals 6:11 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.83

Palmeiras

W D D W L D

Form 2-3-1 Goals 9:5 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 0.83

📈 Probability Breakdown

Gremio win16.4%

Draw16.1%

Palmeiras win67.5%

Over 1.5 goals95.8%

Over 2.5 goals85.7%

Over 3.5 goals70.5%

Both teams to score77.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

92.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away

92.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

91.1%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)84.5%

Draw or Away (X2)82.6%

Both Halves Over 0.582.2%

Goal in Both Halves82.2%

Draw No Bet - Away80.1%

Away Win67.7%

Home or Draw (1X)31.7%

Draw No Bet - Home19.9%

Home Win16.8%

Draw14.9%

Exactly 1 Goal3.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.6%

Over 1.5 Goals94.7%

Over 2.5 Goals85.3%

Over 3.5 Goals70.1%

4+ Goals70.1%

Under 5.5 Goals65.5%

Over 4.5 Goals52.0%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

Total Goals Even49.7%

Under 4.5 Goals48.0%

2-4 Goals42.7%

Over 5.5 Goals34.5%

3-4 Goals33.3%

Under 3.5 Goals29.9%

1-3 Goals28.5%

2-3 Goals24.6%

Exactly 3 Goals15.1%

Under 2.5 Goals14.7%

1-2 Goals13.4%

Exactly 2 Goals9.4%

Under 1.5 Goals5.3%

Under 0.5 Goals1.4%

Exactly 0 Goals0.8%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score95.3%

Home Team to Score79.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)76.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)23.4%

Away Clean Sheet19.5%

Away Win to Nil18.7%

Home Clean Sheet4.2%

Home Win to Nil3.3%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.595.3%

Away Over 1.582.1%

Home Over 0.579.9%

Away Over 2.561.0%

Away 3+ Goals61.0%

Home Over 1.548.1%

Home Exactly 131.8%

Home Exactly 225.9%

Home Over 2.522.3%

Home 3+ Goals22.3%

Away Exactly 221.0%

Home Exactly 019.5%

Away Exactly 113.2%

Away Exactly 04.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.4%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)96.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away96.7%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)96.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)92.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away92.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)91.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home91.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)82.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away82.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)82.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home82.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)68.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home68.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)67.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)50.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home50.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)49.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away49.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)31.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home31.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)31.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away31.5%

Away to win by 3+31.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw18.4%

Away to win by 118.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw17.9%

Away to win by 217.9%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)17.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away17.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)16.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw14.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw9.4%

Home to win by 19.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw9.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)8.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away8.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)7.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home7.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw5.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw4.7%

Home to win by 24.7%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)3.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away3.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)2.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home2.7%

Home to win by 3+2.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw1.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.572.4%

Away & Over 2.561.0%

Away & BTTS49.0%

Away & No BTTS18.7%

Home & Over 2.514.4%

Draw & BTTS14.1%

Home & BTTS13.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.512.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.510.0%

Draw & Over 2.59.9%

Away & Under 2.56.7%

Draw & Under 2.55.0%

BTTS & Under 2.54.2%

Home & No BTTS3.3%

Home & Under 2.52.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.588.5%

HT Over 1.563.6%

HT Away Win53.8%

2nd Half More Goals49.3%

HT/FT Away/Away47.5%

HT Both Teams Score39.5%

HT Under 1.536.4%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw27.1%

HT Home Win19.2%

Equal Goals Each Half18.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away15.6%

HT Under 0.511.5%

HT/FT Home/Home9.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home5.2%

HT/FT Home/Away5.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.3%

HT/FT Away/Home1.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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