Brazil · Serie A

Gremio vs Sao Paulo

Kick-off 20:00 · Sat, Aug 8

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

60% confidence

Gremio 60.0% Draw 20.9% Sao Paulo 19.1%

Over 2.5 - 72% BTTS - 68%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

AI verdict (fallback)

⚠️ Market disagrees - bookies say 70%

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

85%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 9.2%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Gremio: 6 points versus 2 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.2%

Exact-score model probability

Bookmaker implied chance

70%

Market does not fully agree

Gremio

D L W D L D

Form 1-3-2 Goals 6:7 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.17

Sao Paulo

D L L D L L

Form 0-2-4 Goals 6:10 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.67

🏥 Gremio unavailable

Tete · Inactive

Willian · Inactive

🏥 Sao Paulo unavailable

Lucas Moura · Achilles Tendon Injury

E. Diaz · Personal Reasons

R. Toloi · Muscle Injury

D. Bobadilla · Knee Injury

📈 Probability Breakdown

Gremio win60.0%

Draw20.9%

Sao Paulo win19.1%

Over 1.5 goals89.7%

Over 2.5 goals72.0%

Over 3.5 goals51.2%

Both teams to score67.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

91.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

91.6%

Home Team to Score

90.8%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)81.1%

Home or Draw (1X)79.8%

Draw No Bet - Home75.2%

Both Halves Over 0.570.9%

Goal in Both Halves70.9%

Home Win60.9%

Draw or Away (X2)39.0%

Draw No Bet - Away24.8%

Away Win20.1%

Draw18.8%

Exactly 1 Goal8.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.5%

Over 1.5 Goals88.6%

Under 5.5 Goals82.6%

Over 2.5 Goals71.9%

Under 4.5 Goals68.2%

2-4 Goals56.8%

Over 3.5 Goals51.2%

4+ Goals51.2%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Under 3.5 Goals48.8%

1-3 Goals46.4%

3-4 Goals40.1%

2-3 Goals37.4%

Over 4.5 Goals31.8%

Under 2.5 Goals28.1%

1-2 Goals25.6%

Exactly 3 Goals20.7%

Over 5.5 Goals17.4%

Exactly 2 Goals16.7%

Under 1.5 Goals11.4%

Under 0.5 Goals2.5%

Exactly 0 Goals2.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score90.8%

Away Team to Score73.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)66.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)33.1%

Home Clean Sheet26.3%

Home Win to Nil24.0%

Away Clean Sheet9.1%

Away Win to Nil6.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.590.8%

Away Over 0.573.6%

Home Over 1.569.0%

Home Over 2.542.9%

Home 3+ Goals42.9%

Away Over 1.538.4%

Away Exactly 135.1%

Away Exactly 026.3%

Home Exactly 226.1%

Away Exactly 223.4%

Home Exactly 121.8%

Away Over 2.515.0%

Away 3+ Goals15.0%

Home Exactly 09.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.2%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.2%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away95.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)91.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home91.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)89.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away89.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)79.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home79.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)78.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away78.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)60.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)60.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away60.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)39.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home39.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)39.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away39.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)21.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home21.7%

Home to win by 3+21.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw21.4%

Home to win by 121.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)20.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw17.9%

Home to win by 217.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw11.9%

Away to win by 111.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw11.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)10.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home10.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)8.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away8.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw6.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw5.5%

Away to win by 25.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)4.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home4.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.7%

Away to win by 3+2.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.559.2%

Home & Over 2.548.3%

Home & BTTS37.0%

Home & No BTTS24.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.520.3%

Draw & BTTS16.4%

Away & Over 2.514.8%

Away & BTTS13.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.512.7%

Home & Under 2.512.6%

Draw & Under 2.510.1%

Draw & Over 2.58.8%

BTTS & Under 2.57.7%

Away & No BTTS6.7%

Away & Under 2.55.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.581.4%

HT Over 1.550.0%

HT Under 1.550.0%

HT Home Win46.9%

2nd Half More Goals46.8%

HT/FT Home/Home40.3%

HT Draw32.8%

1st Half More Goals32.0%

HT Both Teams Score29.8%

Equal Goals Each Half21.2%

HT Away Win20.3%

HT Under 0.518.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.6%

HT/FT Away/Away11.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw9.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away6.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.7%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.7%

HT/FT Away/Home4.0%

HT/FT Home/Away1.8%

🏥 Injuries & Suspensions

Sao Paulo

Lucas Moura Achilles Tendon Injury

E. Diaz Personal Reasons

R. Toloi Muscle Injury

D. Bobadilla Knee Injury

Gremio

Tete Inactive

Willian Inactive

🔎 API-Football Model

An independent statistical model, shown for comparison.

Gremio win45%

Draw45%

Sao Paulo win10%

AdviceDouble chance : Gremio or draw

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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