Brazil · Serie A

Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama

Kick-off 20:00 · Sat, Sep 12

📊 Our Prediction

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

87% confidence

Gremio 86.7% Draw 9.7% Vasco DA Gama 3.6%

Over 2.5 - 77% BTTS - 48%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

90%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

87%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-0 at 11.1%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Gremio: 7 points versus 5 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Home +3.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

11.1%

Exact-score model probability

Gremio

L W L L W D

Form 2-1-3 Goals 6:8 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.33

Vasco DA Gama

L W L L D D

Form 1-2-3 Goals 5:10 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1.67

📈 Probability Breakdown

Gremio win86.7%

Draw9.7%

Vasco DA Gama win3.6%

Over 1.5 goals91.8%

Over 2.5 goals77.1%

Over 3.5 goals57.8%

Both teams to score48.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

91.2%

Home or Away (12)

90.6%

Over 1.5 Goals

90.6%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home95.5%

Home or Draw (1X)95.1%

Home or Away (12)90.6%

Home Win86.5%

Both Halves Over 0.575.1%

Goal in Both Halves75.1%

Draw or Away (X2)12.7%

Draw8.6%

Exactly 1 Goal6.9%

Draw No Bet - Away4.5%

Away Win4.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.5%

Over 1.5 Goals90.6%

Under 5.5 Goals78.2%

Over 2.5 Goals76.4%

Under 4.5 Goals62.2%

Over 3.5 Goals57.3%

4+ Goals57.3%

2-4 Goals52.8%

Total Goals Even49.7%

Total Goals Odd49.5%

Under 3.5 Goals42.7%

1-3 Goals40.2%

3-4 Goals38.7%

Over 4.5 Goals37.8%

2-3 Goals33.3%

Under 2.5 Goals23.6%

Over 5.5 Goals21.8%

1-2 Goals21.0%

Exactly 3 Goals19.2%

Exactly 2 Goals14.1%

Under 1.5 Goals9.4%

Under 0.5 Goals2.5%

Exactly 0 Goals1.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)52.7%

Home Clean Sheet50.2%

Away Team to Score48.9%

Home Win to Nil48.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)47.3%

Away Clean Sheet3.4%

Away Win to Nil1.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.8%

Home Over 1.584.4%

Home Over 2.565.1%

Home 3+ Goals65.1%

Away Exactly 050.2%

Away Over 0.548.9%

Away Exactly 134.2%

Home Exactly 219.3%

Away Over 1.514.8%

Away Exactly 211.6%

Home Exactly 111.4%

Home Exactly 03.4%

Away Over 2.53.1%

Away 3+ Goals3.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.2%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.2%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)98.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home98.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)95.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home95.1%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)91.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)86.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)81.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away81.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)71.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home71.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)67.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away67.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)51.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home51.1%

Home to win by 3+51.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)48.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away48.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)32.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home32.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)28.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away28.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw19.9%

Home to win by 219.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw19.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)17.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home17.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw15.5%

Home to win by 115.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw14.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)12.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away12.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw9.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)8.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home8.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)4.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw3.1%

Away to win by 13.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away1.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw0.8%

Away to win by 20.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.2%

Away to win by 3+0.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.571.0%

Home & No BTTS48.5%

BTTS & Over 2.543.4%

Home & BTTS38.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.533.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.518.8%

Home & Under 2.515.6%

Draw & BTTS6.9%

Draw & Under 2.55.6%

BTTS & Under 2.53.9%

Draw & Over 2.52.9%

Away & Over 2.52.5%

Away & BTTS2.4%

Away & No BTTS1.7%

Away & Under 2.51.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.584.0%

HT Home Win68.5%

HT/FT Home/Home66.3%

HT Over 1.554.7%

2nd Half More Goals47.7%

HT Under 1.545.3%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

HT Draw24.4%

HT Both Teams Score20.6%

Equal Goals Each Half20.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home18.0%

HT Under 0.516.0%

HT Away Win7.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw4.7%

HT/FT Away/Home3.0%

HT/FT Away/Away2.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw1.9%

HT/FT Home/Draw1.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away1.6%

HT/FT Home/Away0.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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