Netherlands · Eredivisie

Groningen vs Ajax

Kick-off 15:45 · Sun, Oct 18

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

44% confidence

Groningen 28.8% Draw 27.4% Ajax 43.8%

Over 2.5 - 98% BTTS - 94%

🎯 Best Pick

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

80%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

73%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-3 at 5.5%, based on the goal model.

BTTS Poisson estimate

Recent form leans to Ajax: 8 points versus 11 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 5.33 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-3

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.5%

Exact-score model probability

Groningen

W W D D L L

Form 2-2-2 Goals 14:12 Scored/game 2.33 Conceded/game 2

Ajax

D D W W L W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 18:8 Scored/game 3 Conceded/game 1.33

Head to head · last 5

Groningen 1wins ·1 draws ·Ajax 3wins

Groningen 0-2 AjaxMay 21, 2026

Groningen 3-1 AjaxMar 7, 2026

Groningen 0-2 AjaxDec 2, 2025

Groningen 2-2 AjaxMay 14, 2025

Groningen 1-3 AjaxOct 6, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Groningen win28.8%

Draw27.4%

Ajax win43.8%

Over 1.5 goals79.9%

Over 2.5 goals97.8%

Over 3.5 goals32.8%

Both teams to score93.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

90.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home

90.3%

Both Halves Over 0.5

90.2%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.590.2%

Goal in Both Halves90.2%

Home or Away (12)84.0%

Draw or Away (X2)75.6%

Draw No Bet - Away72.6%

Away Win61.0%

Home or Draw (1X)37.6%

Draw No Bet - Home27.4%

Home Win23.0%

Draw14.6%

Exactly 1 Goal1.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.4%

Over 1.5 Goals97.0%

Over 2.5 Goals92.7%

Over 3.5 Goals84.2%

4+ Goals84.2%

Over 4.5 Goals71.1%

Over 5.5 Goals55.3%

Total Goals Odd49.3%

Total Goals Even49.3%

Under 5.5 Goals44.7%

Under 4.5 Goals28.9%

2-4 Goals25.8%

3-4 Goals21.6%

Under 3.5 Goals15.8%

1-3 Goals14.2%

2-3 Goals12.8%

Exactly 3 Goals8.6%

Under 2.5 Goals7.3%

1-2 Goals5.6%

Exactly 2 Goals4.2%

Under 1.5 Goals3.0%

Under 0.5 Goals1.6%

Exactly 0 Goals0.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score96.1%

Home Team to Score89.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)87.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)12.7%

Away Clean Sheet9.0%

Away Win to Nil8.7%

Home Clean Sheet2.5%

Home Win to Nil2.3%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.596.1%

Home Over 0.589.6%

Away Over 1.586.8%

Away Over 2.569.8%

Away 3+ Goals69.8%

Home Over 1.568.1%

Home Over 2.542.3%

Home 3+ Goals42.3%

Home Exactly 225.8%

Home Exactly 121.5%

Away Exactly 217.0%

Away Exactly 19.3%

Home Exactly 09.0%

Away Exactly 02.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.4%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)96.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away96.3%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)95.2%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)92.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away92.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)90.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home90.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)86.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away86.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)82.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home82.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)75.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away75.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)69.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home69.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)61.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)54.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home54.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)44.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away44.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)37.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home37.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)28.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away28.9%

Away to win by 3+28.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)23.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)16.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away16.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw16.5%

Away to win by 116.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw15.5%

Away to win by 215.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)12.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home12.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw12.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw10.7%

Home to win by 110.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw8.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)8.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away8.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw6.6%

Home to win by 26.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)5.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home5.7%

Home to win by 3+5.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw4.8%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)3.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw3.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away3.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)2.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home2.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.6%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.2%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.585.3%

Away & Over 2.558.6%

Away & BTTS52.2%

Home & Over 2.521.8%

Home & BTTS20.7%

Draw & BTTS14.4%

Draw & Over 2.512.3%

Away & No BTTS8.7%

No BTTS & Over 2.57.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.53.8%

Away & Under 2.52.4%

Home & No BTTS2.3%

Draw & Under 2.52.2%

BTTS & Under 2.52.0%

Home & Under 2.51.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.593.5%

HT Over 1.575.8%

HT Both Teams Score53.4%

2nd Half More Goals51.5%

HT Away Win50.9%

HT/FT Away/Away43.1%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Home Win24.7%

HT Draw24.4%

HT Under 1.524.2%

Equal Goals Each Half16.1%

HT/FT Home/Home14.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away13.1%

HT Under 0.56.5%

HT/FT Home/Away6.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home6.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.7%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.7%

HT/FT Away/Home3.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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