Netherlands · Eredivisie

Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard

Kick-off 19:00 · Fri, Aug 28

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

54% confidence

Groningen 53.6% Draw 26.0% Fortuna Sittard 20.5%

Over 2.5 - 85% BTTS - 73%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

85%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

80%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

73%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 8.4%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Groningen: 12 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.33 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.4%

Exact-score model probability

Groningen

L W W L W W

Form 4-0-2 Goals 11:11 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1.83

Fortuna Sittard

L W D L W L

Form 2-1-3 Goals 9:11 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.83

Head to head · last 5

Groningen 2wins ·0 draws ·Fortuna Sittard 3wins

Groningen 1-2 Fortuna SittardJan 25, 2026

Groningen 2-1 Fortuna SittardOct 25, 2025

Groningen 1-0 Fortuna SittardMar 16, 2025

Groningen 0-1 Fortuna SittardOct 26, 2024

Groningen 1-3 Fortuna SittardApr 2, 2023

📈 Probability Breakdown

Groningen win53.6%

Draw26.0%

Fortuna Sittard win20.5%

Over 1.5 goals78.0%

Over 2.5 goals85.4%

Over 3.5 goals30.5%

Both teams to score72.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

91.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

91.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

91.1%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)82.1%

Home or Draw (1X)79.5%

Draw No Bet - Home75.3%

Both Halves Over 0.575.3%

Goal in Both Halves75.3%

Home Win61.8%

Draw or Away (X2)38.1%

Draw No Bet - Away24.7%

Away Win20.3%

Draw17.8%

Exactly 1 Goal6.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.2%

Over 1.5 Goals91.4%

Over 2.5 Goals77.4%

Under 5.5 Goals77.2%

Under 4.5 Goals61.2%

Over 3.5 Goals58.3%

4+ Goals58.3%

2-4 Goals52.5%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Under 3.5 Goals41.7%

1-3 Goals39.8%

Over 4.5 Goals38.8%

3-4 Goals38.6%

2-3 Goals33.0%

Over 5.5 Goals22.8%

Under 2.5 Goals22.6%

1-2 Goals20.8%

Exactly 3 Goals19.1%

Exactly 2 Goals14.0%

Under 1.5 Goals8.6%

Under 0.5 Goals1.8%

Exactly 0 Goals1.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score92.5%

Away Team to Score77.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)71.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)28.5%

Home Clean Sheet22.7%

Home Win to Nil21.1%

Away Clean Sheet7.3%

Away Win to Nil5.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.592.5%

Away Over 0.577.1%

Home Over 1.573.4%

Home Over 2.548.4%

Home 3+ Goals48.4%

Away Over 1.543.5%

Away Exactly 133.6%

Home Exactly 225.0%

Away Exactly 224.9%

Away Exactly 022.7%

Home Exactly 119.1%

Away Over 2.518.6%

Away 3+ Goals18.6%

Home Exactly 07.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)95.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away95.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)91.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home91.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)88.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away88.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)79.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home79.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)76.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away76.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)61.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)58.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away58.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)41.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home41.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)38.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away38.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)23.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home23.7%

Home to win by 3+23.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw20.4%

Home to win by 120.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)20.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw17.7%

Home to win by 217.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw12.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)11.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home11.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw11.5%

Away to win by 111.5%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)8.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away8.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw6.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw5.7%

Away to win by 25.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)4.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home4.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)3.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away3.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw3.1%

Away to win by 3+3.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.7%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.565.0%

Home & Over 2.551.7%

Home & BTTS40.7%

Home & No BTTS21.1%

Draw & BTTS16.1%

Away & Over 2.516.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.516.0%

Away & BTTS14.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.512.4%

Home & Under 2.510.1%

Draw & Over 2.59.7%

Draw & Under 2.58.1%

BTTS & Under 2.56.4%

Away & No BTTS5.7%

Away & Under 2.54.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.584.2%

HT Over 1.555.0%

HT Home Win48.2%

2nd Half More Goals47.7%

HT Under 1.545.0%

HT/FT Home/Home41.4%

HT Both Teams Score33.6%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

HT Draw30.9%

HT Away Win20.9%

Equal Goals Each Half20.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.0%

HT Under 0.515.8%

HT/FT Away/Away11.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away6.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.7%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.7%

HT/FT Away/Home4.4%

HT/FT Home/Away2.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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