Netherlands · Eredivisie

Groningen vs PEC Zwolle

Kick-off 19:00 · Fri, Sep 18

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

59% confidence

Groningen 58.5% Draw 23.7% PEC Zwolle 17.8%

Over 2.5 - 97% BTTS - 92%

🎯 Best Pick

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

82%

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

82%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-2 at 6%, based on the goal model.

BTTS Poisson estimate

Recent form leans to Groningen: 8 points versus 4 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

Exact-score model probability

Groningen

D D L L W W

Form 2-2-2 Goals 12:13 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 2.17

PEC Zwolle

L D L W L L

Form 1-1-4 Goals 6:17 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 2.83

Head to head · last 5

Groningen 0wins ·4 draws ·PEC Zwolle 1wins

Groningen 1-1 PEC ZwolleMar 13, 2026

Groningen 2-2 PEC ZwolleNov 23, 2025

Groningen 0-2 PEC ZwolleMay 18, 2025

Groningen 0-0 PEC ZwolleDec 8, 2024

Groningen 1-1 PEC ZwolleFeb 20, 2022

📈 Probability Breakdown

Groningen win58.5%

Draw23.7%

PEC Zwolle win17.8%

Over 1.5 goals82.4%

Over 2.5 goals97.4%

Over 3.5 goals36.9%

Both teams to score92.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

91.2%

Over 2.5 Goals

89.8%

Away Team to Score

88.1%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.586.5%

Goal in Both Halves86.5%

Home or Away (12)83.3%

Home or Draw (1X)74.4%

Draw No Bet - Home70.1%

Home Win58.3%

Draw or Away (X2)41.0%

Draw No Bet - Away29.9%

Away Win24.9%

Draw16.1%

Exactly 1 Goal2.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.9%

Over 1.5 Goals96.5%

Over 2.5 Goals89.8%

Over 3.5 Goals78.0%

4+ Goals78.0%

Over 4.5 Goals61.9%

Under 5.5 Goals55.4%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

Total Goals Even49.7%

Over 5.5 Goals44.6%

Under 4.5 Goals38.1%

2-4 Goals34.5%

3-4 Goals27.9%

Under 3.5 Goals22.0%

1-3 Goals21.0%

2-3 Goals18.5%

Exactly 3 Goals11.9%

Under 2.5 Goals10.2%

1-2 Goals9.1%

Exactly 2 Goals6.6%

Under 1.5 Goals3.5%

Under 0.5 Goals1.1%

Exactly 0 Goals0.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.4%

Away Team to Score88.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)84.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)15.5%

Home Clean Sheet11.3%

Home Win to Nil10.8%

Away Clean Sheet4.0%

Away Win to Nil3.6%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.4%

Away Over 0.588.1%

Home Over 1.582.5%

Away Over 1.563.5%

Home Over 2.561.7%

Home 3+ Goals61.7%

Away Over 2.536.8%

Away 3+ Goals36.8%

Away Exactly 226.7%

Away Exactly 124.6%

Home Exactly 220.7%

Home Exactly 112.9%

Away Exactly 011.3%

Home Exactly 04.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.2%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.1%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)96.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)93.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home93.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)93.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away93.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)86.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home86.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)85.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away85.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)74.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home74.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)74.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away74.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)58.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away58.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)58.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)41.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away41.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)40.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home40.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)25.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home25.0%

Home to win by 3+25.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)24.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.6%

Home to win by 117.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.7%

Home to win by 215.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)13.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home13.5%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)13.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away13.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw11.9%

Away to win by 111.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw11.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw7.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw7.2%

Away to win by 27.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)6.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home6.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)5.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away5.8%

Away to win by 3+5.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw3.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.6%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)2.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home2.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)2.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away2.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.2%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.581.3%

Home & Over 2.554.5%

Home & BTTS47.5%

Away & Over 2.522.9%

Away & BTTS21.4%

Draw & BTTS15.6%

Draw & Over 2.512.5%

Home & No BTTS10.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.56.3%

Home & Under 2.53.8%

Draw & Under 2.53.6%

Away & No BTTS3.6%

BTTS & Under 2.53.2%

Away & Under 2.52.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.591.2%

HT Over 1.569.7%

2nd Half More Goals50.4%

HT Home Win47.9%

HT Both Teams Score47.8%

HT/FT Home/Home39.9%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.530.3%

HT Draw26.6%

HT Away Win25.5%

Equal Goals Each Half17.2%

HT/FT Away/Away15.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home13.5%

HT Under 0.58.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away6.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.2%

HT/FT Away/Home5.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.9%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.9%

HT/FT Home/Away3.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions