Netherlands · Eredivisie

Groningen vs Utrecht

Kick-off 13:30 · Sun, Aug 9

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

35% confidence

Groningen 34.0% Draw 30.8% Utrecht 35.1%

Over 2.5 - 91% BTTS - 82%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 7.4%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Utrecht: 7 points versus 13 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.4%

Exact-score model probability

Groningen

L W W L L D

Form 2-1-3 Goals 7:10 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1.67

Utrecht

D W W W W L

Form 4-1-1 Goals 9:8 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.33

Head to head · last 5

Groningen 1wins ·0 draws ·Utrecht 4wins

Groningen 1-2 UtrechtFeb 14, 2026

Groningen 1-0 UtrechtSep 14, 2025

Groningen 1-3 UtrechtApr 13, 2025

Groningen 0-1 UtrechtOct 20, 2024

Groningen 1-2 UtrechtApr 7, 2023

📈 Probability Breakdown

Groningen win34.0%

Draw30.8%

Utrecht win35.1%

Over 1.5 goals72.4%

Over 2.5 goals91.1%

Over 3.5 goals23.5%

Both teams to score81.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

88.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away

88.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

88.3%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)82.0%

Both Halves Over 0.579.1%

Goal in Both Halves79.1%

Home or Draw (1X)75.8%

Draw No Bet - Home70.7%

Home Win57.9%

Draw or Away (X2)41.9%

Draw No Bet - Away29.3%

Away Win24.0%

Draw17.8%

Exactly 1 Goal5.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.6%

Over 1.5 Goals93.5%

Over 2.5 Goals82.0%

Under 5.5 Goals71.2%

Over 3.5 Goals64.9%

4+ Goals64.9%

Under 4.5 Goals54.2%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

2-4 Goals47.6%

Over 4.5 Goals45.8%

3-4 Goals36.2%

Under 3.5 Goals35.1%

1-3 Goals33.7%

Over 5.5 Goals28.8%

2-3 Goals28.6%

Under 2.5 Goals18.0%

Exactly 3 Goals17.1%

1-2 Goals16.6%

Exactly 2 Goals11.5%

Under 1.5 Goals6.5%

Under 0.5 Goals1.4%

Exactly 0 Goals1.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score93.1%

Away Team to Score82.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)77.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)23.0%

Home Clean Sheet17.3%

Home Win to Nil16.1%

Away Clean Sheet6.7%

Away Win to Nil5.5%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.593.1%

Away Over 0.582.5%

Home Over 1.575.1%

Away Over 1.552.2%

Home Over 2.550.6%

Home 3+ Goals50.6%

Away Exactly 130.3%

Away Exactly 226.6%

Away Over 2.525.6%

Away 3+ Goals25.6%

Home Exactly 224.4%

Home Exactly 118.1%

Away Exactly 017.3%

Home Exactly 06.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.2%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.2%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)95.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away95.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)88.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away88.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)88.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home88.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)77.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away77.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)75.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home75.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)61.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away61.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)57.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)41.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away41.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)38.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home38.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)24.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)22.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home22.1%

Home to win by 3+22.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw19.4%

Home to win by 119.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.5%

Home to win by 216.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw12.6%

Away to win by 112.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)11.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away11.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw11.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)10.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home10.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw6.9%

Away to win by 26.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw6.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)4.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)4.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away4.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home4.6%

Away to win by 3+4.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw3.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.571.5%

Home & Over 2.550.6%

Home & BTTS41.8%

Away & Over 2.520.2%

Away & BTTS18.5%

Draw & BTTS16.7%

Home & No BTTS16.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.512.3%

Draw & Over 2.511.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.5%

Home & Under 2.57.4%

Draw & Under 2.56.6%

Away & No BTTS5.5%

BTTS & Under 2.55.5%

Away & Under 2.53.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.586.6%

HT Over 1.559.6%

2nd Half More Goals48.6%

HT Home Win46.2%

HT Under 1.540.4%

HT/FT Home/Home38.7%

HT Both Teams Score38.4%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw29.8%

HT Away Win24.0%

Equal Goals Each Half19.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.7%

HT/FT Away/Away14.2%

HT Under 0.513.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away7.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Away/Home4.7%

HT/FT Home/Away2.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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