Mexico · Liga MX

Guadalajara Chivas vs Club Queretaro

Kick-off 00:07 · Sun, Sep 27

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

35% confidence

Guadalajara Chivas 34.5% Draw 31.6% Club Queretaro 33.9%

Over 2.5 - 41% BTTS - 49%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

91%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

68%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 13.2%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Guadalajara Chivas: 14 points versus 11 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

13.2%

Exact-score model probability

Guadalajara Chivas

D W W D W W

Form 4-2-0 Goals 12:3 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 0.5

Club Queretaro

D W W L D W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 9:6 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1

📈 Probability Breakdown

Guadalajara Chivas win34.5%

Draw31.6%

Club Queretaro win33.9%

Over 1.5 goals69.4%

Over 2.5 goals41.3%

Over 3.5 goals20.7%

Both teams to score49.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 4.5 Goals

91.2%

Over 0.5 Goals

90.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

85.2%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)71.9%

Home or Draw (1X)64.4%

Draw or Away (X2)63.7%

Draw No Bet - Home50.4%

Draw No Bet - Away49.6%

Both Halves Over 0.547.0%

Goal in Both Halves47.0%

Home Win36.3%

Away Win35.6%

Draw28.1%

Exactly 1 Goal22.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals96.8%

Under 4.5 Goals91.2%

Over 0.5 Goals90.3%

Under 3.5 Goals79.3%

1-3 Goals69.6%

Over 1.5 Goals67.7%

2-4 Goals58.9%

Under 2.5 Goals58.7%

Total Goals Even50.5%

Total Goals Odd49.5%

1-2 Goals49.0%

2-3 Goals46.9%

Over 2.5 Goals41.3%

3-4 Goals32.5%

Under 1.5 Goals32.3%

Exactly 2 Goals26.4%

Over 3.5 Goals20.7%

4+ Goals20.7%

Exactly 3 Goals20.5%

Under 0.5 Goals9.7%

Exactly 0 Goals9.7%

Over 4.5 Goals8.8%

Over 5.5 Goals3.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score69.1%

Away Team to Score68.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)52.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)47.4%

Home Clean Sheet31.3%

Away Clean Sheet30.9%

Home Win to Nil21.6%

Away Win to Nil21.2%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.569.1%

Away Over 0.568.7%

Away Exactly 136.4%

Home Exactly 136.3%

Home Over 1.532.8%

Away Over 1.532.3%

Away Exactly 031.3%

Home Exactly 030.9%

Home Exactly 221.3%

Away Exactly 221.1%

Home Over 2.511.5%

Home 3+ Goals11.5%

Away Over 2.511.2%

Away 3+ Goals11.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)95.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away95.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)85.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home85.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)84.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away84.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)64.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home64.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)63.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away63.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)36.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)35.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw21.1%

Home to win by 121.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw20.9%

Away to win by 120.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)15.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home15.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)14.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away14.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw10.3%

Home to win by 210.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw10.0%

Away to win by 210.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)4.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home4.9%

Home to win by 3+4.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)4.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away4.7%

Away to win by 3+4.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw3.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.545.5%

BTTS & Over 2.534.2%

Draw & Under 2.522.9%

Home & No BTTS21.6%

Away & No BTTS21.2%

Draw & BTTS18.4%

Home & Over 2.518.2%

Home & Under 2.518.1%

Away & Over 2.517.8%

Away & Under 2.517.8%

Home & BTTS14.6%

Away & BTTS14.4%

BTTS & Under 2.513.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.57.1%

Draw & Over 2.55.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.571.7%

HT Over 0.565.0%

HT Draw45.3%

2nd Half More Goals41.8%

HT Under 0.535.0%

1st Half More Goals30.3%

HT Over 1.528.3%

Equal Goals Each Half27.9%

HT Home Win27.5%

HT Away Win27.1%

HT/FT Home/Home20.8%

HT/FT Away/Away20.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw18.3%

HT Both Teams Score16.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home13.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away13.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.9%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.9%

HT/FT Away/Home1.8%

HT/FT Home/Away1.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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