Mexico · Liga MX

Guadalajara Chivas vs Club Tijuana

Kick-off 00:07 · Sun, Aug 23

📊 Our Prediction

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

62% confidence

Guadalajara Chivas 11.9% Draw 26.6% Club Tijuana 61.5%

Over 2.5 - 39% BTTS - 38%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

88%

Away Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

62%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 0-1 at 17.3%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Club Tijuana: 8 points versus 10 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Away +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

0-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

17.3%

Exact-score model probability

Guadalajara Chivas

W D W L L D

Form 2-2-2 Goals 6:7 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.17

Club Tijuana

W D W W

Form 3-1-0 Goals 6:2 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 0.5

📈 Probability Breakdown

Guadalajara Chivas win11.9%

Draw26.6%

Club Tijuana win61.5%

Over 1.5 goals67.2%

Over 2.5 goals39.2%

Over 3.5 goals19.1%

Both teams to score38.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 0.5 Goals

89.5%

Draw or Away (X2)

86.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)

86.7%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)86.7%

Draw No Bet - Away82.6%

Home or Away (12)76.1%

Away Win62.8%

Both Halves Over 0.545.3%

Goal in Both Halves45.3%

Home or Draw (1X)37.2%

Draw23.9%

Exactly 1 Goal23.7%

Draw No Bet - Home17.4%

Home Win13.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals97.2%

Under 4.5 Goals92.2%

Over 0.5 Goals89.5%

Under 3.5 Goals80.9%

1-3 Goals70.4%

Over 1.5 Goals65.8%

Under 2.5 Goals60.8%

2-4 Goals58.0%

Total Goals Even50.5%

1-2 Goals50.3%

Total Goals Odd49.4%

2-3 Goals46.7%

Over 2.5 Goals39.2%

Under 1.5 Goals34.2%

3-4 Goals31.3%

Exactly 2 Goals26.7%

Exactly 3 Goals20.0%

Over 3.5 Goals19.1%

4+ Goals19.1%

Under 0.5 Goals10.5%

Exactly 0 Goals10.5%

Over 4.5 Goals7.8%

Over 5.5 Goals2.8%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score80.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)63.4%

Away Clean Sheet54.7%

Home Team to Score45.3%

Away Win to Nil44.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)36.6%

Home Clean Sheet19.2%

Home Win to Nil8.7%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.580.8%

Home Exactly 054.7%

Away Over 1.549.1%

Home Over 0.545.3%

Home Exactly 133.0%

Away Exactly 131.7%

Away Exactly 226.1%

Away Over 2.523.0%

Away 3+ Goals23.0%

Away Exactly 019.2%

Home Over 1.512.3%

Home Exactly 210.0%

Home Over 2.52.4%

Home 3+ Goals2.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away100.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away99.4%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)96.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away96.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)94.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home94.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)86.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away86.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)84.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home84.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)64.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home64.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)62.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)37.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home37.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)35.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away35.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw27.5%

Away to win by 127.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw19.7%

Away to win by 219.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)15.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away15.7%

Away to win by 3+15.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)13.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw10.1%

Home to win by 110.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw10.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)5.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away5.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw3.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)3.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home3.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw2.6%

Home to win by 22.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home0.6%

Home to win by 3+0.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw0.5%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.550.4%

Away & No BTTS44.2%

Away & Under 2.531.6%

Away & Over 2.531.2%

BTTS & Over 2.526.2%

Draw & Under 2.521.0%

Away & BTTS18.7%

Draw & BTTS13.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.513.0%

BTTS & Under 2.510.5%

Home & No BTTS8.7%

Home & Under 2.58.3%

Home & Over 2.55.0%

Home & BTTS4.6%

Draw & Over 2.52.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.573.0%

HT Over 0.563.7%

HT Draw44.0%

HT Away Win43.6%

2nd Half More Goals41.4%

HT/FT Away/Away39.5%

HT Under 0.536.3%

1st Half More Goals30.2%

Equal Goals Each Half28.5%

HT Over 1.527.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away21.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw16.9%

HT Home Win12.5%

HT Both Teams Score12.5%

HT/FT Home/Home6.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home5.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.5%

HT/FT Home/Away2.0%

HT/FT Away/Home0.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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