Mexico · Liga MX

Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa

Full time · 1:0

📊 Our Prediction

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

83% confidence

Guadalajara Chivas 83.0% Draw 12.5% Necaxa 4.5%

Over 2.5 - 68% BTTS - 44%

✓ Pick was correct (1:0)

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

88%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

87%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

83%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

1X · Home or Draw covers 95.5% of the model's 1X2 probability, leaving 4.5% on the only losing outcome.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Guadalajara Chivas: 12 points versus 3 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +3.5 (Handicap)

1X · Home or Draw

95.5%

Two outcomes covered by the model

Loss probability

4.5%

Only the uncovered result loses

Guadalajara Chivas

D D W W D W

Form 3-3-0 Goals 12:4 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 0.67

Necaxa

L D L D L D

Form 0-3-3 Goals 5:10 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1.67

📈 Probability Breakdown

Guadalajara Chivas win83.0%

Draw12.5%

Necaxa win4.5%

Over 1.5 goals87.1%

Over 2.5 goals67.9%

Over 3.5 goals46.3%

Both teams to score43.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Away (12)

88.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

88.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away

88.1%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)94.6%

Draw No Bet - Home94.2%

Home or Away (12)88.6%

Home Win83.4%

Both Halves Over 0.567.8%

Goal in Both Halves67.8%

Draw or Away (X2)16.3%

Draw11.1%

Exactly 1 Goal10.5%

Draw No Bet - Away5.8%

Away Win5.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.7%

Over 1.5 Goals86.2%

Under 5.5 Goals86.0%

Under 4.5 Goals72.7%

Over 2.5 Goals67.7%

2-4 Goals58.9%

Under 3.5 Goals53.8%

1-3 Goals50.5%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Over 3.5 Goals46.2%

4+ Goals46.2%

3-4 Goals40.5%

2-3 Goals40.0%

Under 2.5 Goals32.3%

1-2 Goals29.0%

Over 4.5 Goals27.3%

Exactly 3 Goals21.6%

Exactly 2 Goals18.4%

Over 5.5 Goals14.0%

Under 1.5 Goals13.8%

Under 0.5 Goals3.3%

Exactly 0 Goals3.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)57.1%

Home Clean Sheet54.3%

Home Win to Nil51.3%

Away Team to Score45.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)42.9%

Away Clean Sheet5.5%

Away Win to Nil2.5%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.2%

Home Over 1.578.2%

Home Over 2.555.1%

Home 3+ Goals55.1%

Away Exactly 054.3%

Away Over 0.545.4%

Away Exactly 133.0%

Home Exactly 223.2%

Home Exactly 116.0%

Away Over 1.512.4%

Away Exactly 210.0%

Home Exactly 05.5%

Away Over 2.52.4%

Away 3+ Goals2.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)98.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home98.5%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)94.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)94.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home94.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)88.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away88.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)83.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)75.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away75.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)64.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home64.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)57.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away57.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)42.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home42.6%

Home to win by 3+42.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)35.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away35.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)24.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home24.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw21.8%

Home to win by 221.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw19.0%

Home to win by 119.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw18.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)16.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away16.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw12.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)11.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home11.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw6.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)5.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)4.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home4.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw4.0%

Away to win by 14.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away1.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.0%

Away to win by 21.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.2%

Away to win by 3+0.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.562.1%

Home & No BTTS51.3%

BTTS & Over 2.537.6%

Home & BTTS32.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.530.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.526.7%

Home & Under 2.521.3%

Draw & Under 2.58.3%

Draw & BTTS8.1%

BTTS & Under 2.55.3%

Draw & Over 2.52.8%

Away & Over 2.52.8%

Away & BTTS2.6%

Away & No BTTS2.5%

Away & Under 2.52.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.579.4%

HT Home Win63.6%

HT/FT Home/Home61.1%

HT Under 1.553.2%

HT Over 1.546.8%

2nd Half More Goals46.2%

1st Half More Goals31.9%

HT Draw28.7%

Equal Goals Each Half21.9%

HT Under 0.520.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home19.9%

HT Both Teams Score17.4%

HT Away Win7.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.7%

HT/FT Away/Home2.8%

HT/FT Away/Away2.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away2.1%

HT/FT Home/Away0.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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