Mexico · Liga MX

Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL

Kick-off 00:07 · Sun, Oct 18

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

77% confidence

Guadalajara Chivas 76.8% Draw 17.8% Tigres UANL 5.4%

Over 2.5 - 50% BTTS - 34%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

87%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

77%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

1X · Home or Draw covers 94.6% of the model's 1X2 probability, leaving 5.4% on the only losing outcome.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Guadalajara Chivas: 12 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Guadalajara Chivas 1 wins, 0 draws, Tigres UANL 1 wins in the last 2 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

1X · Home or Draw

94.6%

Two outcomes covered by the model

Loss probability

5.4%

Only the uncovered result loses

Guadalajara Chivas

D D W W D W

Form 3-3-0 Goals 12:4 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 0.67

Tigres UANL

W D L D D D

Form 1-4-1 Goals 3:4 Scored/game 0.5 Conceded/game 0.67

Head to head · last 2

Guadalajara Chivas 1wins ·0 draws ·Tigres UANL 1wins

Guadalajara Chivas 2-0 Tigres UANLMay 10, 2026

Guadalajara Chivas 1-3 Tigres UANLMay 3, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

Guadalajara Chivas win76.8%

Draw17.8%

Tigres UANL win5.4%

Over 1.5 goals75.5%

Over 2.5 goals49.8%

Over 3.5 goals27.9%

Both teams to score33.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

92.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away

92.0%

Home Team to Score

85.9%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)85.0%

Draw No Bet - Home81.0%

Home or Away (12)79.0%

Home Win64.0%

Both Halves Over 0.556.0%

Goal in Both Halves56.0%

Draw or Away (X2)36.0%

Draw21.0%

Draw No Bet - Away19.0%

Exactly 1 Goal17.2%

Away Win15.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals93.8%

Under 5.5 Goals93.6%

Under 4.5 Goals85.0%

Over 1.5 Goals76.6%

Under 3.5 Goals69.6%

1-3 Goals63.4%

2-4 Goals61.6%

Over 2.5 Goals52.7%

Total Goals Even50.2%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Under 2.5 Goals47.3%

2-3 Goals46.2%

1-2 Goals41.1%

3-4 Goals37.7%

Over 3.5 Goals30.4%

4+ Goals30.4%

Exactly 2 Goals23.9%

Under 1.5 Goals23.4%

Exactly 3 Goals22.2%

Over 4.5 Goals15.0%

Over 5.5 Goals6.4%

Under 0.5 Goals6.2%

Exactly 0 Goals6.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score85.9%

Away Team to Score56.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)51.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)48.2%

Home Clean Sheet43.9%

Home Win to Nil37.7%

Away Clean Sheet14.1%

Away Win to Nil7.9%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.585.9%

Home Over 1.558.3%

Away Over 0.556.1%

Away Exactly 043.9%

Away Exactly 136.1%

Home Over 2.531.2%

Home 3+ Goals31.2%

Home Exactly 127.6%

Home Exactly 227.1%

Away Over 1.520.0%

Away Exactly 214.9%

Home Exactly 014.1%

Away Over 2.55.1%

Away 3+ Goals5.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home100.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.8%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)95.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home95.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)92.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away92.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)85.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home85.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)80.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away80.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)64.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)60.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away60.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)39.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home39.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)36.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away36.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw24.9%

Home to win by 124.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw19.7%

Home to win by 219.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)19.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home19.4%

Home to win by 3+19.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)15.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw11.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw10.5%

Away to win by 110.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)8.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home8.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw5.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)4.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away4.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw3.5%

Away to win by 23.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.0%

Away to win by 3+1.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.540.0%

BTTS & Over 2.538.2%

Home & No BTTS37.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.537.3%

Home & BTTS26.3%

Home & Under 2.524.0%

Draw & Under 2.516.2%

Draw & BTTS14.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.514.4%

BTTS & Under 2.510.0%

Away & No BTTS7.9%

Away & Over 2.57.8%

Away & Under 2.57.2%

Away & BTTS7.1%

Draw & Over 2.54.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.571.4%

HT Under 1.564.4%

HT Home Win46.4%

2nd Half More Goals43.8%

HT/FT Home/Home41.4%

HT Draw38.7%

HT Over 1.535.6%

1st Half More Goals31.1%

HT Under 0.528.6%

Equal Goals Each Half25.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home19.7%

HT Both Teams Score18.2%

HT Away Win14.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw13.0%

HT/FT Away/Away8.1%

HT/FT Draw/Away6.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.0%

HT/FT Away/Home2.8%

HT/FT Home/Away0.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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