Mexico · Liga MX

Guadalajara Chivas vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas

● LIVE 45' · 1:0

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

42% confidence

Guadalajara Chivas 42.3% Draw 28.1% U.N.A.M. - Pumas 29.6%

Over 2.5 - 53% BTTS - 58%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

85%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

72%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 11.8%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Guadalajara Chivas: 14 points versus 11 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.33 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

11.8%

Exact-score model probability

Guadalajara Chivas

W D W W D W

Form 4-2-0 Goals 9:2 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 0.33

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

W L D D W W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 11:6 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1

📈 Probability Breakdown

Guadalajara Chivas win42.3%

Draw28.1%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas win29.6%

Over 1.5 goals78.3%

Over 2.5 goals52.9%

Over 3.5 goals30.6%

Both teams to score57.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

91.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away

91.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

86.8%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)75.0%

Home or Draw (1X)68.9%

Draw No Bet - Home58.5%

Draw or Away (X2)56.2%

Both Halves Over 0.556.1%

Goal in Both Halves56.1%

Home Win43.8%

Draw No Bet - Away41.5%

Away Win31.1%

Draw25.0%

Exactly 1 Goal17.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals93.9%

Under 5.5 Goals93.6%

Under 4.5 Goals84.9%

Over 1.5 Goals76.8%

Under 3.5 Goals69.4%

1-3 Goals63.2%

2-4 Goals61.6%

Over 2.5 Goals52.9%

Total Goals Even50.2%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Under 2.5 Goals47.1%

2-3 Goals46.1%

1-2 Goals41.0%

3-4 Goals37.8%

Over 3.5 Goals30.6%

4+ Goals30.6%

Exactly 2 Goals23.9%

Under 1.5 Goals23.2%

Exactly 3 Goals22.2%

Over 4.5 Goals15.1%

Over 5.5 Goals6.4%

Under 0.5 Goals6.1%

Exactly 0 Goals6.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score78.5%

Away Team to Score71.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)56.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)43.9%

Home Clean Sheet28.5%

Home Win to Nil22.3%

Away Clean Sheet21.5%

Away Win to Nil15.4%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.578.5%

Away Over 0.571.5%

Home Over 1.545.4%

Away Exactly 135.8%

Away Over 1.535.7%

Home Exactly 133.1%

Away Exactly 028.5%

Home Exactly 225.4%

Away Exactly 222.5%

Home Exactly 021.5%

Home Over 2.520.0%

Home 3+ Goals20.0%

Away Over 2.513.3%

Away 3+ Goals13.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.2%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)97.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away97.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)91.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away91.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)86.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home86.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)78.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away78.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)68.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home68.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)56.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away56.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)43.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)31.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)21.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home21.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw21.9%

Home to win by 121.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw17.9%

Away to win by 117.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)13.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away13.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw13.2%

Home to win by 213.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw8.8%

Away to win by 28.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)8.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home8.7%

Home to win by 3+8.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw5.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)4.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away4.4%

Away to win by 3+4.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)2.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home2.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.9%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.544.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.535.3%

Home & Over 2.527.2%

Home & No BTTS22.3%

Home & BTTS21.5%

Draw & BTTS18.9%

Away & Over 2.518.6%

Draw & Under 2.518.0%

Home & Under 2.516.6%

Away & BTTS15.7%

Away & No BTTS15.4%

Away & Under 2.512.5%

BTTS & Under 2.511.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.6%

Draw & Over 2.57.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.571.5%

HT Under 1.564.2%

2nd Half More Goals43.8%

HT Draw40.7%

HT Over 1.535.8%

HT Home Win33.6%

1st Half More Goals31.2%

HT Under 0.528.5%

HT/FT Home/Home26.4%

HT Away Win25.7%

Equal Goals Each Half25.0%

HT Both Teams Score21.5%

HT/FT Away/Away17.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw14.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away11.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Away/Home2.6%

HT/FT Home/Away2.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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