Portugal · Primeira Liga

Guimaraes vs Arouca

Kick-off 18:00 · Sat, Aug 8

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

50% confidence

Guimaraes 49.5% Draw 23.4% Arouca 27.1%

Over 2.5 - 56% BTTS - 66%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

AI verdict (fallback)

🤝 Bookmakers agree - bookies say 76%

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

72%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 9.7%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Arouca: 7 points versus 10 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Guimaraes 2 wins, 2 draws, Arouca 1 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.7%

Exact-score model probability

Bookmaker implied chance

76%

Market agrees with this pick

Guimaraes

L L L W W D

Form 2-1-3 Goals 5:9 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1.5

Arouca

W W D L W L

Form 3-1-2 Goals 10:7 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.17

Head to head · last 5

Guimaraes 2wins ·2 draws ·Arouca 1wins

Guimaraes 2-3 AroucaFeb 7, 2026

Guimaraes 1-1 AroucaAug 30, 2025

Guimaraes 2-2 AroucaJan 18, 2025

Guimaraes 1-0 AroucaAug 12, 2024

Guimaraes 3-1 AroucaMay 18, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Guimaraes win49.5%

Draw23.4%

Arouca win27.1%

Over 1.5 goals78.9%

Over 2.5 goals56.2%

Over 3.5 goals33.8%

Both teams to score66.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 5.5 Goals

88.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

88.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

88.0%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)77.9%

Home or Draw (1X)72.5%

Both Halves Over 0.565.0%

Goal in Both Halves65.0%

Draw No Bet - Home64.7%

Home Win50.4%

Draw or Away (X2)49.6%

Draw No Bet - Away35.3%

Away Win27.5%

Draw22.1%

Exactly 1 Goal12.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.4%

Under 5.5 Goals88.1%

Over 1.5 Goals84.3%

Under 4.5 Goals76.0%

Over 2.5 Goals64.4%

2-4 Goals60.3%

Under 3.5 Goals57.7%

1-3 Goals54.1%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Over 3.5 Goals42.3%

4+ Goals42.3%

2-3 Goals42.0%

3-4 Goals40.3%

Under 2.5 Goals35.6%

1-2 Goals32.0%

Over 4.5 Goals24.0%

Exactly 3 Goals22.1%

Exactly 2 Goals20.0%

Under 1.5 Goals15.7%

Over 5.5 Goals11.9%

Under 0.5 Goals3.6%

Exactly 0 Goals3.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score85.5%

Away Team to Score74.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)64.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)35.9%

Home Clean Sheet25.1%

Home Win to Nil21.4%

Away Clean Sheet14.5%

Away Win to Nil10.8%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.585.5%

Away Over 0.574.9%

Home Over 1.557.5%

Away Over 1.540.2%

Away Exactly 134.7%

Home Over 2.530.5%

Home 3+ Goals30.5%

Home Exactly 128.0%

Home Exactly 227.0%

Away Exactly 025.1%

Away Exactly 224.0%

Away Over 2.516.2%

Away 3+ Goals16.2%

Home Exactly 014.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)94.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away94.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)88.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home88.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)86.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away86.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)72.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home72.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)71.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away71.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)50.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)49.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away49.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)28.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home28.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)27.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw21.6%

Home to win by 121.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw15.5%

Away to win by 115.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.2%

Home to win by 215.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)13.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home13.5%

Home to win by 3+13.5%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)12.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away12.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw8.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw7.8%

Away to win by 27.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)5.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home5.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)4.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away4.2%

Away to win by 3+4.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw3.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.9%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.554.4%

Home & Over 2.536.6%

Home & BTTS28.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.525.9%

Home & No BTTS21.4%

Away & Over 2.519.0%

Draw & BTTS18.5%

Away & BTTS16.7%

Home & Under 2.513.8%

Draw & Under 2.513.3%

Away & No BTTS10.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.0%

BTTS & Under 2.59.7%

Draw & Over 2.58.8%

Away & Under 2.58.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.577.5%

HT Under 1.556.0%

2nd Half More Goals45.6%

HT Over 1.544.0%

HT Home Win39.0%

HT Draw36.4%

1st Half More Goals31.7%

HT/FT Home/Home31.7%

HT Both Teams Score26.9%

HT Away Win24.5%

Equal Goals Each Half22.6%

HT Under 0.522.5%

HT/FT Away/Away16.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw11.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away9.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Away/Home3.4%

HT/FT Home/Away2.2%

🔎 API-Football Model

An independent statistical model, shown for comparison.

Guimaraes win45%

Draw45%

Arouca win10%

AdviceDouble chance : Guimaraes or draw

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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