South-Korea · K League 1

Gwangju FC vs Incheon United

Kick-off 11:30 · Sun, Aug 23

📊 Our Prediction

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

81% confidence

Gwangju FC 5.9% Draw 13.0% Incheon United 81.1%

Over 2.5 - 73% BTTS - 52%

🎯 Best Pick

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

🤝 Bookmakers agree - bookies say 80%

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

90%

Away Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

81%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 0-2 at 10.2%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Incheon United: 3 points versus 9 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Away +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

0-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

10.2%

Exact-score model probability

Bookmaker implied chance

80%

Market agrees with this pick

Gwangju FC

L D L L D D

Form 0-3-3 Goals 4:8 Scored/game 0.67 Conceded/game 1.33

Incheon United

D D D W W L

Form 2-3-1 Goals 8:7 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.17

Head to head · last 1

Gwangju FC 0wins ·0 draws ·Incheon United 1wins

Gwangju FC 0-4 Incheon UnitedMay 16, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

Gwangju FC win5.9%

Draw13.0%

Incheon United win81.1%

Over 1.5 goals89.9%

Over 2.5 goals73.0%

Over 3.5 goals52.5%

Both teams to score52.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

88.9%

Home or Away (12)

88.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

87.8%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)93.0%

Draw No Bet - Away92.5%

Home or Away (12)88.0%

Away Win81.5%

Both Halves Over 0.571.8%

Goal in Both Halves71.8%

Home or Draw (1X)18.1%

Draw11.6%

Exactly 1 Goal8.5%

Draw No Bet - Home7.5%

Home Win6.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.4%

Over 1.5 Goals88.9%

Under 5.5 Goals81.9%

Over 2.5 Goals72.7%

Under 4.5 Goals67.1%

2-4 Goals56.0%

Over 3.5 Goals52.3%

4+ Goals52.3%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Total Goals Even49.8%

Under 3.5 Goals47.7%

1-3 Goals45.1%

3-4 Goals39.9%

2-3 Goals36.6%

Over 4.5 Goals32.9%

Under 2.5 Goals27.3%

1-2 Goals24.6%

Exactly 3 Goals20.5%

Over 5.5 Goals18.1%

Exactly 2 Goals16.1%

Under 1.5 Goals11.1%

Under 0.5 Goals2.6%

Exactly 0 Goals2.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score94.7%

Home Team to Score54.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)51.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)48.6%

Away Clean Sheet45.6%

Away Win to Nil43.3%

Home Clean Sheet4.9%

Home Win to Nil2.6%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.594.7%

Away Over 1.580.0%

Away Over 2.557.7%

Away 3+ Goals57.7%

Home Over 0.554.0%

Home Exactly 045.6%

Home Exactly 135.6%

Away Exactly 222.3%

Home Over 1.518.4%

Away Exactly 114.7%

Home Exactly 213.9%

Away Exactly 04.9%

Home Over 2.54.5%

Home 3+ Goals4.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away99.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)97.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away97.8%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)94.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)93.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away93.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)87.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home87.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)81.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)75.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home75.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)62.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away62.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)57.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home57.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)41.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away41.9%

Away to win by 3+41.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)36.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home36.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)24.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away24.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw21.0%

Away to win by 221.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw18.5%

Away to win by 118.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)18.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home18.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw17.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw12.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)11.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away11.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw6.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)6.6%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)5.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away5.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw4.8%

Home to win by 14.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)1.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home1.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw1.4%

Home to win by 21.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home0.4%

Home to win by 3+0.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw0.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

Away & Over 2.564.5%

BTTS & Over 2.546.1%

Away & No BTTS43.3%

Away & BTTS38.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.526.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.521.6%

Away & Under 2.516.9%

Draw & BTTS9.3%

Draw & Under 2.57.5%

BTTS & Under 2.55.3%

Home & Over 2.54.2%

Draw & Over 2.54.1%

Home & BTTS3.9%

Home & No BTTS2.6%

Home & Under 2.52.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.581.9%

HT Away Win62.7%

HT/FT Away/Away59.6%

HT Over 1.551.0%

HT Under 1.549.0%

2nd Half More Goals47.0%

1st Half More Goals32.1%

HT Draw27.8%

HT Both Teams Score22.0%

Equal Goals Each Half20.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away18.9%

HT Under 0.518.1%

HT Home Win9.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.4%

HT/FT Home/Home3.5%

HT/FT Home/Away3.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home2.5%

HT/FT Away/Home0.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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