South-Korea · K League 1

Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC

Kick-off 11:30 · Wed, Sep 9

📊 Our Prediction

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

87% confidence

Gwangju FC 4.4% Draw 8.6% Jeju United FC 87.0%

Over 2.5 - 87% BTTS - 62%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

91%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Away Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

87%

Draw No Bet - Away

DNB away — draw refunds stake

87%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 0-3 at 7.4%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Jeju United FC: 2 points versus 14 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.84 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

0-3

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.4%

Exact-score model probability

Gwangju FC

D L L D L L

Form 0-2-4 Goals 4:11 Scored/game 0.67 Conceded/game 1.83

Jeju United FC

W D W W D W

Form 4-2-0 Goals 13:6 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 1

Head to head · last 1

Gwangju FC 0wins ·0 draws ·Jeju United FC 1wins

Gwangju FC 1-2 Jeju United FCJul 26, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

Gwangju FC win4.4%

Draw8.6%

Jeju United FC win87.0%

Over 1.5 goals96.0%

Over 2.5 goals86.7%

Over 3.5 goals72.0%

Both teams to score61.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Away (12)

90.3%

HT Over 0.5

89.1%

Away Over 1.5

88.5%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Away94.8%

Draw or Away (X2)93.3%

Home or Away (12)90.3%

Away Win85.6%

Both Halves Over 0.583.2%

Goal in Both Halves83.2%

Home or Draw (1X)12.4%

Draw7.7%

Draw No Bet - Home5.2%

Home Win4.7%

Exactly 1 Goal3.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.3%

Over 1.5 Goals93.7%

Over 2.5 Goals85.0%

Over 3.5 Goals70.6%

4+ Goals70.6%

Under 5.5 Goals64.7%

Over 4.5 Goals52.8%

Total Goals Even49.1%

Total Goals Odd48.9%

Under 4.5 Goals47.2%

2-4 Goals40.9%

Over 5.5 Goals35.3%

3-4 Goals32.2%

Under 3.5 Goals29.4%

1-3 Goals26.7%

2-3 Goals23.1%

Under 2.5 Goals15.0%

Exactly 3 Goals14.4%

1-2 Goals12.3%

Exactly 2 Goals8.8%

Under 1.5 Goals6.3%

Under 0.5 Goals2.7%

Exactly 0 Goals0.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score96.1%

Home Team to Score61.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)60.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)40.0%

Away Clean Sheet36.8%

Away Win to Nil36.1%

Home Clean Sheet1.9%

Home Win to Nil1.2%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.596.1%

Away Over 1.588.5%

Away Over 2.573.5%

Away 3+ Goals73.5%

Home Over 0.561.2%

Home Exactly 036.8%

Home Exactly 136.0%

Home Over 1.525.2%

Home Exactly 217.7%

Away Exactly 215.0%

Away Exactly 17.6%

Home Over 2.57.5%

Home 3+ Goals7.5%

Away Exactly 01.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)97.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away97.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)97.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away97.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)96.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away96.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)93.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away93.3%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)87.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)85.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)76.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home76.5%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)72.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away72.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)61.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home61.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)54.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away54.8%

Away to win by 3+54.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)43.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home43.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)36.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away36.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)25.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home25.7%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)21.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away21.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw18.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw17.5%

Away to win by 217.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw15.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw13.3%

Away to win by 113.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)12.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home12.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw10.8%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)10.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away10.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)4.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw3.3%

Home to win by 13.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home1.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw1.1%

Home to win by 21.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home0.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw0.3%

Home to win by 3+0.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

Away & Over 2.577.1%

BTTS & Over 2.557.2%

Away & BTTS49.5%

Away & No BTTS36.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.527.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.510.2%

Away & Under 2.58.5%

Draw & BTTS7.0%

Draw & Over 2.54.2%

Home & Over 2.53.7%

Draw & Under 2.53.5%

Home & BTTS3.5%

BTTS & Under 2.52.8%

Home & No BTTS1.2%

Home & Under 2.51.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.589.1%

HT Away Win70.3%

HT/FT Away/Away67.7%

HT Over 1.565.0%

2nd Half More Goals49.5%

HT Under 1.535.0%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Both Teams Score29.6%

HT Draw21.2%

Equal Goals Each Half18.1%

HT/FT Draw/Away15.9%

HT Under 0.510.9%

HT Home Win8.5%

HT/FT Home/Away3.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw3.6%

HT/FT Home/Home2.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home1.6%

HT/FT Away/Home0.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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