Germany · Bundesliga

Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05

Kick-off 14:30 · Sun, Sep 6

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

35% confidence

Hamburger SV 35.2% Draw 30.8% FSV Mainz 05 34.0%

Over 2.5 - 78% BTTS - 69%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

81%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

69%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

69%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-2 at 8.4%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to FSV Mainz 05: 7 points versus 8 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.4%

Exact-score model probability

Hamburger SV

L D W W L L

Form 2-1-3 Goals 8:11 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.83

FSV Mainz 05

D W L W L D

Form 2-2-2 Goals 9:9 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.5

Head to head · last 2

Hamburger SV 1wins ·1 draws ·FSV Mainz 05 0wins

Hamburger SV 1-1 FSV Mainz 05Feb 20, 2026

Hamburger SV 4-0 FSV Mainz 05Oct 5, 2025

📈 Probability Breakdown

Hamburger SV win35.2%

Draw30.8%

FSV Mainz 05 win34.0%

Over 1.5 goals66.4%

Over 2.5 goals77.6%

Over 3.5 goals18.8%

Both teams to score68.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

88.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

87.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home

87.9%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)78.6%

Both Halves Over 0.570.7%

Goal in Both Halves70.7%

Draw or Away (X2)66.6%

Draw No Bet - Away57.6%

Home or Draw (1X)54.7%

Away Win45.3%

Draw No Bet - Home42.4%

Home Win33.4%

Draw21.3%

Exactly 1 Goal9.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.5%

Over 1.5 Goals88.5%

Under 5.5 Goals82.8%

Over 2.5 Goals71.7%

Under 4.5 Goals68.4%

2-4 Goals56.9%

Over 3.5 Goals50.9%

4+ Goals50.9%

Total Goals Odd50.0%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Under 3.5 Goals49.1%

1-3 Goals46.6%

3-4 Goals40.1%

2-3 Goals37.6%

Over 4.5 Goals31.6%

Under 2.5 Goals28.3%

1-2 Goals25.8%

Exactly 3 Goals20.8%

Over 5.5 Goals17.2%

Exactly 2 Goals16.8%

Under 1.5 Goals11.5%

Under 0.5 Goals2.5%

Exactly 0 Goals2.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score86.5%

Home Team to Score81.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)70.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)29.1%

Away Clean Sheet18.1%

Away Win to Nil15.7%

Home Clean Sheet13.4%

Home Win to Nil11.0%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.586.5%

Home Over 0.581.9%

Away Over 1.559.6%

Home Over 1.550.9%

Away Over 2.532.5%

Away 3+ Goals32.5%

Home Exactly 130.9%

Away Exactly 227.1%

Away Exactly 127.0%

Home Exactly 226.4%

Home Over 2.524.5%

Home 3+ Goals24.5%

Home Exactly 018.1%

Away Exactly 013.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.3%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)97.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away97.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.2%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)93.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away93.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)87.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home87.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)83.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away83.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)74.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home74.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)66.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away66.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)54.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home54.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)45.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)33.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)25.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away25.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw19.7%

Away to win by 119.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw16.7%

Home to win by 116.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)16.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home16.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw13.5%

Away to win by 213.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)12.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away12.0%

Away to win by 3+12.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw9.8%

Home to win by 29.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw7.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)6.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home6.8%

Home to win by 3+6.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)4.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away4.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw4.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw3.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)2.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home2.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.7%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.7%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.2%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.562.5%

Away & Over 2.535.5%

Away & BTTS29.6%

Home & Over 2.525.7%

Home & BTTS22.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.519.9%

Draw & BTTS18.9%

Away & No BTTS15.7%

Home & No BTTS11.0%

Draw & Under 2.510.8%

Draw & Over 2.510.6%

Away & Under 2.59.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.2%

BTTS & Under 2.58.3%

Home & Under 2.57.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.581.2%

HT Under 1.550.2%

HT Over 1.549.8%

2nd Half More Goals46.8%

HT Away Win36.6%

HT Draw34.3%

1st Half More Goals32.0%

HT Both Teams Score31.9%

HT Home Win29.1%

HT/FT Away/Away28.3%

Equal Goals Each Half21.2%

HT/FT Home/Home20.0%

HT Under 0.518.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away13.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home10.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw10.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Away3.6%

HT/FT Away/Home2.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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