Germany · Bundesliga

Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart

Kick-off 14:30 · Sat, Oct 17

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

53% confidence

Hamburger SV 23.3% Draw 24.1% VfB Stuttgart 52.6%

Over 2.5 - 98% BTTS - 94%

🎯 Best Pick

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

81%

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

77%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-3 at 5.4%, based on the goal model.

BTTS Poisson estimate

Recent form leans to VfB Stuttgart: 7 points versus 12 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.17 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-3

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.4%

Exact-score model probability

Hamburger SV

W W L L L D

Form 2-1-3 Goals 6:16 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 2.67

VfB Stuttgart

W W L L W W

Form 4-0-2 Goals 13:5 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 0.83

Head to head · last 4

Hamburger SV 1wins ·0 draws ·VfB Stuttgart 3wins

Hamburger SV 0-4 VfB StuttgartApr 12, 2026

Hamburger SV 2-1 VfB StuttgartNov 30, 2025

Hamburger SV 1-3 VfB StuttgartJun 5, 2023

Hamburger SV 0-3 VfB StuttgartJun 1, 2023

📈 Probability Breakdown

Hamburger SV win23.3%

Draw24.1%

VfB Stuttgart win52.6%

Over 1.5 goals81.1%

Over 2.5 goals97.9%

Over 3.5 goals35.8%

Both teams to score94.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Both Halves Over 0.5

90.4%

Goal in Both Halves

90.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

88.7%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.590.4%

Goal in Both Halves90.4%

Home or Away (12)84.7%

Draw or Away (X2)79.5%

Draw No Bet - Away78.0%

Away Win66.1%

Home or Draw (1X)32.0%

Draw No Bet - Home22.0%

Home Win18.7%

Draw13.4%

Exactly 1 Goal1.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.9%

Over 1.5 Goals96.6%

Over 2.5 Goals92.4%

Over 3.5 Goals84.0%

4+ Goals84.0%

Over 4.5 Goals71.2%

Over 5.5 Goals55.4%

Total Goals Odd49.1%

Total Goals Even49.1%

Under 5.5 Goals44.6%

Under 4.5 Goals28.8%

2-4 Goals25.4%

3-4 Goals21.3%

Under 3.5 Goals16.0%

1-3 Goals13.9%

2-3 Goals12.5%

Exactly 3 Goals8.4%

Under 2.5 Goals7.6%

1-2 Goals5.5%

Exactly 2 Goals4.1%

Under 1.5 Goals3.4%

Under 0.5 Goals2.1%

Exactly 0 Goals0.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score96.1%

Home Team to Score87.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)85.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)14.3%

Away Clean Sheet10.6%

Away Win to Nil10.3%

Home Clean Sheet2.0%

Home Win to Nil1.8%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.596.1%

Away Over 1.588.1%

Home Over 0.587.6%

Away Over 2.572.6%

Away 3+ Goals72.6%

Home Over 1.564.0%

Home Over 2.537.8%

Home 3+ Goals37.8%

Home Exactly 226.2%

Home Exactly 123.5%

Away Exactly 215.5%

Home Exactly 010.6%

Away Exactly 18.0%

Away Exactly 02.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)96.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away96.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)94.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away94.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)93.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)88.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away88.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)87.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home87.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)79.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away79.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)77.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home77.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)66.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)64.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home64.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)50.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away50.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)48.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home48.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)33.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away33.9%

Away to win by 3+33.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)32.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home32.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)20.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away20.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)18.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw16.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw16.1%

Away to win by 116.1%

Away to win by 216.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw13.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)10.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away10.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw9.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)9.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home9.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw9.2%

Home to win by 19.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw6.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw5.3%

Home to win by 25.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)4.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away4.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)4.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home4.1%

Home to win by 3+4.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw2.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.583.8%

Away & Over 2.563.6%

Away & BTTS55.7%

Home & Over 2.517.6%

Home & BTTS16.8%

Draw & BTTS13.2%

Draw & Over 2.511.3%

Away & No BTTS10.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.53.8%

Away & Under 2.52.5%

Draw & Under 2.52.1%

BTTS & Under 2.51.9%

Home & No BTTS1.8%

Home & Under 2.51.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.593.6%

HT Over 1.576.1%

HT Away Win54.9%

HT Both Teams Score52.3%

2nd Half More Goals51.5%

HT/FT Away/Away48.0%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.523.9%

HT Draw23.5%

HT Home Win21.6%

Equal Goals Each Half16.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away13.7%

HT/FT Home/Home11.1%

HT Under 0.56.4%

HT/FT Home/Away6.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home5.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw4.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.3%

HT/FT Away/Home2.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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