UEFA Champions League

Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Sabah FA

Kick-off 20:00 · Wed, Aug 19

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

46% confidence

Hapoel Beer Sheva 46.4% Draw 30.8% Sabah FA 22.8%

Over 2.5 - 40% BTTS - 46%

🎯 Best Pick

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

AI verdict (fallback)

⚠️ AIs disagree

69%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

1X · Home or Draw covers 77.2% of the model's 1X2 probability, leaving 22.8% on the only losing outcome.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Sabah FA: 9 points versus 15 across the last 4 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

1X · Home or Draw

77.2%

Two outcomes covered by the model

Loss probability

22.8%

Only the uncovered result loses

Hapoel Beer Sheva

W W W L

Form 3-0-1 Goals 6:2 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 0.5

Sabah FA

W L W W W W

Form 5-0-1 Goals 12:3 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 0.5

📈 Probability Breakdown

Hapoel Beer Sheva win46.4%

Draw30.8%

Sabah FA win22.8%

Over 1.5 goals68.1%

Over 2.5 goals39.9%

Over 3.5 goals19.7%

Both teams to score46.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 4.5 Goals

91.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

91.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

91.7%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)75.5%

Home or Away (12)72.5%

Draw No Bet - Home66.2%

Draw or Away (X2)52.0%

Home Win48.0%

Both Halves Over 0.545.8%

Goal in Both Halves45.8%

Draw No Bet - Away33.8%

Draw27.5%

Away Win24.5%

Exactly 1 Goal23.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals97.1%

Under 4.5 Goals91.9%

Over 0.5 Goals89.8%

Under 3.5 Goals80.3%

1-3 Goals70.1%

Over 1.5 Goals66.4%

Under 2.5 Goals60.1%

2-4 Goals58.3%

Total Goals Even50.5%

1-2 Goals49.9%

Total Goals Odd49.5%

2-3 Goals46.8%

Over 2.5 Goals39.9%

Under 1.5 Goals33.6%

3-4 Goals31.7%

Exactly 2 Goals26.6%

Exactly 3 Goals20.2%

Over 3.5 Goals19.7%

4+ Goals19.7%

Under 0.5 Goals10.2%

Exactly 0 Goals10.2%

Over 4.5 Goals8.1%

Over 5.5 Goals2.9%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score74.8%

Away Team to Score59.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)55.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)44.4%

Home Clean Sheet40.7%

Home Win to Nil30.4%

Away Clean Sheet25.2%

Away Win to Nil14.9%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.574.8%

Away Over 0.559.3%

Away Exactly 040.7%

Home Over 1.540.1%

Away Exactly 136.6%

Home Exactly 134.7%

Home Exactly 025.2%

Home Exactly 224.0%

Away Over 1.522.8%

Away Exactly 216.5%

Home Over 2.516.2%

Home 3+ Goals16.2%

Away Over 2.56.3%

Away 3+ Goals6.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)97.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away97.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)91.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home91.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)91.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away91.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)76.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away76.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)75.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home75.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)52.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away52.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)48.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw24.9%

Home to win by 124.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)24.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)23.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home23.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw16.2%

Away to win by 116.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw14.5%

Home to win by 214.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)8.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home8.7%

Home to win by 3+8.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)8.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away8.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw6.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw6.1%

Away to win by 26.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)2.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home2.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.1%

Away to win by 3+2.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.547.4%

BTTS & Over 2.531.7%

Home & No BTTS30.4%

Home & Over 2.524.2%

Home & Under 2.523.9%

Draw & Under 2.522.9%

Home & BTTS17.6%

Draw & BTTS17.2%

Away & No BTTS14.9%

Away & Under 2.513.3%

BTTS & Under 2.512.7%

Away & Over 2.511.1%

Away & BTTS9.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.2%

Draw & Over 2.54.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.572.6%

HT Over 0.564.2%

HT Draw45.4%

2nd Half More Goals41.5%

HT Under 0.535.8%

HT Home Win34.5%

1st Half More Goals30.2%

HT/FT Home/Home28.7%

Equal Goals Each Half28.3%

HT Over 1.527.4%

HT Away Win20.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw18.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.3%

HT Both Teams Score15.4%

HT/FT Away/Away13.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away9.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.6%

HT/FT Away/Home2.1%

HT/FT Home/Away1.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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