UEFA Champions League

Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Vikingur Reykjavik

Kick-off 18:30 · Wed, Jul 29

📊 Our Prediction

Away Win

78% confidence

Hapoel Beer Sheva 9.0% Draw 13.0% Vikingur Reykjavik 78.0%

Over 2.5 - 82% BTTS - 66%

🎯 Best Pick

Away Win

Form gap

⚠️ Market disagrees - bookies say 18%

⚠️ AIs disagree

64%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 2.5 Goals

Attacking threat

82%

Both Teams Score

BTTS rate

75%

🤖 AI Match Analysis

Hapoel Beer Sheva is in poor form, losing their last match. Vikingur Reykjavik has a strong attacking threat, with a high xG. The away team's recent wins and Hapoel Beer Sheva's struggles at home make an away win likely. Vikingur Reykjavik's key players will be crucial in this match.

💡

Top Tip

Vikingur Reykjavik to win

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

X2 · Draw or Away covers 91% of the model's 1X2 probability, leaving 9.0% on the only losing outcome.

Form gap

Numbers behind this Away Win

X2 · Draw or Away

91%

Two outcomes covered by the model

Loss probability

Only the uncovered result loses

Bookmaker implied chance

18%

Market does not fully agree

Hapoel Beer Sheva

Form 0-0-1 Goals 1:2 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 2

Vikingur Reykjavik

W D W

Form 2-1-0 Goals 5:3 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1

Head to head · last 1

Hapoel Beer Sheva 0wins ·0 draws ·Vikingur Reykjavik 1wins

Hapoel Beer Sheva 1-2 Vikingur ReykjavikJul 21, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

Hapoel Beer Sheva win9.0%

Draw13.0%

Vikingur Reykjavik win78.0%

Over 1.5 goals94.3%

Over 2.5 goals82.2%

Over 3.5 goals65.2%

Both teams to score66.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Draw or Away (X2)

90.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)

90.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away

90.1%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)90.1%

Draw No Bet - Away89.5%

Home or Away (12)87.4%

Both Halves Over 0.579.3%

Goal in Both Halves79.3%

Away Win78.2%

Home or Draw (1X)21.1%

Draw11.9%

Draw No Bet - Home10.5%

Home Win9.2%

Exactly 1 Goal5.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.1%

Over 1.5 Goals93.1%

Over 2.5 Goals81.7%

Under 5.5 Goals71.3%

Over 3.5 Goals64.7%

4+ Goals64.7%

Under 4.5 Goals54.3%

Total Goals Even49.7%

Total Goals Odd49.6%

2-4 Goals47.3%

Over 4.5 Goals45.7%

3-4 Goals36.0%

Under 3.5 Goals35.3%

1-3 Goals33.4%

Over 5.5 Goals28.7%

2-3 Goals28.3%

Under 2.5 Goals18.3%

Exactly 3 Goals17.0%

1-2 Goals16.4%

Exactly 2 Goals11.4%

Under 1.5 Goals6.9%

Under 0.5 Goals1.9%

Exactly 0 Goals1.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score95.7%

Home Team to Score67.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)65.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)34.6%

Away Clean Sheet31.4%

Away Win to Nil30.3%

Home Clean Sheet3.6%

Home Win to Nil2.4%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.595.7%

Away Over 1.583.8%

Home Over 0.567.8%

Away Over 2.564.0%

Away 3+ Goals64.0%

Home Exactly 136.1%

Home Over 1.531.7%

Home Exactly 031.4%

Home Exactly 220.8%

Away Exactly 219.8%

Away Exactly 111.9%

Home Over 2.510.9%

Home 3+ Goals10.9%

Away Exactly 03.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.3%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away98.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)96.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away96.1%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)93.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)90.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away90.1%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)86.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home86.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)78.2%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)74.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home74.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)60.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away60.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)57.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home57.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)41.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away41.5%

Away to win by 3+41.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)38.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home38.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)24.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away24.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)21.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home21.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw19.3%

Away to win by 219.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw17.4%

Away to win by 117.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw16.8%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)12.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away12.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw12.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)9.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw7.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw6.0%

Home to win by 16.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)5.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away5.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)3.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home3.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw2.3%

Home to win by 22.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home0.9%

Home to win by 3+0.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw0.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

Away & Over 2.568.1%

BTTS & Over 2.561.1%

Away & BTTS47.9%

Away & No BTTS30.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.520.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.513.2%

Draw & BTTS10.7%

Away & Under 2.510.0%

Home & Over 2.57.2%

Home & BTTS6.8%

Draw & Over 2.56.4%

Draw & Under 2.55.5%

BTTS & Under 2.54.3%

Home & No BTTS2.4%

Home & Under 2.52.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.586.7%

HT Away Win61.6%

HT Over 1.559.9%

HT/FT Away/Away57.4%

2nd Half More Goals48.6%

HT Under 1.540.1%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Both Teams Score31.4%

HT Draw25.8%

Equal Goals Each Half19.1%

HT/FT Draw/Away17.1%

HT Under 0.513.3%

HT Home Win12.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.6%

HT/FT Home/Home5.1%

HT/FT Home/Away4.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home3.1%

HT/FT Away/Home1.0%

🔎 API-Football Model

An independent statistical model, shown for comparison.

Hapoel Beer Sheva win10%

Draw45%

Vikingur Reykjavik win45%

AdviceDouble chance : draw or Vikingur Reykjavik

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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