Scotland · Premiership

Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren

Kick-off 15:00 · Sat, Oct 10

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

66% confidence

Heart Of Midlothian 65.6% Draw 21.8% ST Mirren 12.6%

Over 2.5 - 44% BTTS - 58%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

87%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

81%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

66%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 11.1%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to ST Mirren: 9 points versus 13 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.33 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

11.1%

Exact-score model probability

Heart Of Midlothian

W D D D W L

Form 2-3-1 Goals 12:11 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1.83

ST Mirren

L W D W W W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 8:4 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 0.67

Head to head · last 5

Heart Of Midlothian 3wins ·1 draws ·ST Mirren 1wins

Heart Of Midlothian 0-1 ST MirrenFeb 3, 2026

Heart Of Midlothian 2-0 ST MirrenJan 14, 2026

Heart Of Midlothian 2-2 ST MirrenOct 29, 2025

Heart Of Midlothian 3-1 ST MirrenFeb 26, 2025

Heart Of Midlothian 4-0 ST MirrenOct 19, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Heart Of Midlothian win65.6%

Draw21.8%

ST Mirren win12.6%

Over 1.5 goals70.2%

Over 2.5 goals44.4%

Over 3.5 goals23.2%

Both teams to score57.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 5.5 Goals

91.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

91.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home

91.0%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)75.9%

Draw or Away (X2)67.1%

Both Halves Over 0.560.1%

Goal in Both Halves60.1%

Home or Draw (1X)57.0%

Draw No Bet - Away56.6%

Draw No Bet - Home43.4%

Away Win43.0%

Home Win32.9%

Draw24.1%

Exactly 1 Goal14.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.1%

Under 5.5 Goals91.5%

Under 4.5 Goals81.3%

Over 1.5 Goals80.3%

Under 3.5 Goals64.5%

2-4 Goals61.6%

1-3 Goals59.5%

Over 2.5 Goals57.9%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-3 Goals44.7%

Under 2.5 Goals42.1%

3-4 Goals39.3%

1-2 Goals37.1%

Over 3.5 Goals35.5%

4+ Goals35.5%

Exactly 3 Goals22.4%

Exactly 2 Goals22.3%

Under 1.5 Goals19.7%

Over 4.5 Goals18.7%

Over 5.5 Goals8.5%

Under 0.5 Goals4.9%

Exactly 0 Goals4.9%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score80.2%

Home Team to Score75.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)60.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)39.7%

Away Clean Sheet24.9%

Away Win to Nil20.0%

Home Clean Sheet19.8%

Home Win to Nil14.9%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.580.2%

Home Over 0.575.1%

Away Over 1.548.2%

Home Over 1.540.5%

Home Exactly 134.6%

Away Exactly 132.0%

Away Exactly 226.0%

Home Exactly 024.9%

Home Exactly 224.1%

Away Over 2.522.2%

Away 3+ Goals22.2%

Away Exactly 019.8%

Home Over 2.516.4%

Home 3+ Goals16.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)94.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away94.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)91.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home91.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)85.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away85.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)78.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home78.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)67.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away67.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)57.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home57.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)43.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)32.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)21.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away21.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw21.1%

Away to win by 121.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.1%

Home to win by 118.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)14.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home14.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw12.9%

Away to win by 212.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw9.5%

Home to win by 29.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)9.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away9.0%

Away to win by 3+9.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw6.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)5.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home5.3%

Home to win by 3+5.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw3.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)3.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away3.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.549.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.531.0%

Away & Over 2.528.6%

Away & BTTS23.0%

Home & Over 2.521.3%

Away & No BTTS20.0%

Draw & BTTS19.2%

Home & BTTS18.1%

Draw & Under 2.516.0%

Home & No BTTS14.9%

Away & Under 2.514.4%

Home & Under 2.511.6%

BTTS & Under 2.511.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.8%

Draw & Over 2.58.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.574.2%

HT Under 1.560.7%

2nd Half More Goals44.6%

HT Over 1.539.3%

HT Draw39.0%

HT Away Win33.7%

1st Half More Goals31.4%

HT Home Win27.4%

HT/FT Away/Away26.1%

HT Under 0.525.8%

HT Both Teams Score24.1%

Equal Goals Each Half24.0%

HT/FT Home/Home19.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away14.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw13.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home11.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Away2.8%

HT/FT Away/Home2.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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