Netherlands · Eredivisie

Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar

Kick-off 13:30 · Sun, Sep 6

📊 Our Prediction

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

43% confidence

Heerenveen 30.9% Draw 26.2% AZ Alkmaar 42.8%

Over 2.5 - 56% BTTS - 47%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

83%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

74%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-2 at 9.2%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to AZ Alkmaar: 6 points versus 14 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.2%

Exact-score model probability

Heerenveen

D L D W L D

Form 1-3-2 Goals 7:9 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1.5

AZ Alkmaar

W W W W D D

Form 4-2-0 Goals 17:7 Scored/game 2.83 Conceded/game 1.17

Head to head · last 5

Heerenveen 2wins ·0 draws ·AZ Alkmaar 3wins

Heerenveen 0-3 AZ AlkmaarApr 12, 2026

Heerenveen 3-1 AZ AlkmaarNov 23, 2025

Heerenveen 1-4 AZ AlkmaarMay 22, 2025

Heerenveen 3-1 AZ AlkmaarMar 2, 2025

Heerenveen 1-9 AZ AlkmaarSep 14, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Heerenveen win30.9%

Draw26.2%

AZ Alkmaar win42.8%

Over 1.5 goals82.3%

Over 2.5 goals56.3%

Over 3.5 goals36.7%

Both teams to score46.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

87.9%

Draw or Away (X2)

86.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)

86.9%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)86.9%

Draw No Bet - Away84.6%

Home or Away (12)83.7%

Away Win70.8%

Both Halves Over 0.570.0%

Goal in Both Halves70.0%

Home or Draw (1X)29.1%

Draw16.2%

Draw No Bet - Home15.4%

Home Win12.9%

Exactly 1 Goal9.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.3%

Over 1.5 Goals87.9%

Under 5.5 Goals83.7%

Over 2.5 Goals70.7%

Under 4.5 Goals69.6%

2-4 Goals57.5%

Under 3.5 Goals50.4%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Over 3.5 Goals49.6%

4+ Goals49.6%

1-3 Goals47.6%

3-4 Goals40.3%

2-3 Goals38.2%

Over 4.5 Goals30.4%

Under 2.5 Goals29.3%

1-2 Goals26.6%

Exactly 3 Goals21.0%

Exactly 2 Goals17.2%

Over 5.5 Goals16.3%

Under 1.5 Goals12.1%

Under 0.5 Goals2.7%

Exactly 0 Goals2.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score92.5%

Home Team to Score64.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)60.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)39.9%

Away Clean Sheet35.0%

Away Win to Nil32.5%

Home Clean Sheet7.3%

Home Win to Nil4.7%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.592.5%

Away Over 1.573.4%

Home Over 0.564.8%

Away Over 2.548.4%

Away 3+ Goals48.4%

Home Exactly 136.7%

Home Exactly 035.0%

Home Over 1.528.1%

Away Exactly 225.0%

Home Exactly 219.2%

Away Exactly 119.1%

Home Over 2.58.9%

Home 3+ Goals8.9%

Away Exactly 07.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away98.6%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)97.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)95.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away95.4%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)93.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home93.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)86.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away86.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)84.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home84.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)70.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)70.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home70.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)50.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home50.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)49.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away49.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)29.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away29.5%

Away to win by 3+29.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)29.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home29.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw21.2%

Away to win by 121.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw20.1%

Away to win by 220.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)14.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away14.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw14.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)12.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw8.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw8.5%

Home to win by 18.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)6.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away6.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)4.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home4.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw4.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw3.2%

Home to win by 23.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)2.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away2.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home1.2%

Home to win by 3+1.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw0.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

Away & Over 2.555.3%

BTTS & Over 2.553.0%

Away & BTTS38.3%

Away & No BTTS32.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.522.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.517.6%

Away & Under 2.515.5%

Draw & BTTS13.6%

Draw & Under 2.59.6%

Home & Over 2.58.8%

Home & BTTS8.2%

BTTS & Under 2.57.0%

Draw & Over 2.56.6%

Home & No BTTS4.7%

Home & Under 2.54.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.580.8%

HT Away Win53.7%

HT Under 1.551.0%

HT Over 1.549.0%

HT/FT Away/Away48.7%

2nd Half More Goals46.6%

1st Half More Goals32.0%

HT Draw31.5%

HT Both Teams Score26.0%

Equal Goals Each Half21.4%

HT Under 0.519.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away18.3%

HT Home Win14.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.5%

HT/FT Home/Home7.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home4.7%

HT/FT Home/Away3.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.8%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.8%

HT/FT Away/Home1.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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